California Senate winner? (2028)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 7, 2029 · $10 today · $1.5K traded · $574 at stake · prices read 64 min ago

The odds

92%Democratic party

Democratic party92%▼ 1
Republican party8%▲ 6

How the odds have moved

Democratic party: 87% on Oct 19, 92% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Democratic party	92%	▼ 1	89¢	96¢	$1.04	1.4K
Republican party	8%	▲ 6	4¢	12¢	$8.33	2.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: California Senate

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Top LA journalist had fling with Dem SoCal lawmaker, let her write his stories: reportCalifornia Post · 16 days agoA high-profile Los Angeles immigration reporter has been fired amid allegations of ethical breaches, including claims he had a secret romantic relationship with a rising California state senator and allowed her to help write stories…
An Alleged Affair Raises Ethics Questions in L.A. TACO FiringLAmag · 14 days agoL.A. TACO and Memo Torres have offered conflicting accounts of his firing, as allegations of a personal relationship with state Sen. Sasha Renée Pérez raise questions about journalistic ethics • 1 hour ago The firing of an L.A. TACO…
Leftist Anti-ICE Reporter Memo Torres FIRED After Allegations That He Let a Democrat State Senator Write His Articles During Secret AffairThe Gateway Pundit · 16 days agoTorres’ firing follows an internal investigation the publication said lasted nearly five months and found repeated violations of its policies and journalistic standards. The 46-year-old landscaper-turned-ICE reporter became one of the…
Museum of Tolerance Gaza Protest, Pico-Robertson LAHoodline · 16 days agoA coalition calling itself the No Tolerance for Genocide Committee gathered outside the Museum of Tolerance on West Pico Boulevard this week, demanding the Los Angeles institution add exhibits and educational programming addressing the…
With pressure from Trump, California Senate hears resolution on mail-in ballotsSacramento Bee · 21 days agoA Senate committee on Tuesday advanced a resolution declaring California’s support of its current mail-in ballot system amid ongoing criticism by President Donald Trump about the state’s recent primary election. The measure was a direct…
Harmeet Dhillon, Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights DivisionThe Presidential Prayer Team · 19 days agoHarmeet Kaur Dhillon was born in September 1969 in Chandigarh, India. She graduated from Dartmouth College, and then earned a Juris Doctor from the University of Virginia. She clerked at the Fourth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals. Dhillon…
Anthropic proposes AI safety bill to block high-risk models that could cause 50 deaths or $1 billion in damage@firstpost · 20 days agoAnthropic is pushing a draft bill that would allow US courts to stop AI models from being released if independent assessments identify an imminent threat of mass casualties or major property damage. The proposal outlines a formal review…
California law draws distinct definition between e-bikes and e-motosPowersports Business · 20 days agoCalifornia has brought some clarity to the concerningly opaque legal lines between electric bikes and electric motorcycles after it recently enacted a law that clearly defines the differences between the two vehicles. As detailed in its…
Sacramento: Golden State Legislative Reunion Brings Together Lawmakers and Officials Who Served Between 1964 and 1995@VoiceViewpoint · 20 days agoDecades of political history, legislative battles and bipartisan relationships came to life in Sacramento on Oct. 9 as some of California’s most influential former lawmakers gathered for the Golden State Legislative Reunion. In addition to…
California Should Not Get To Set Policy For All Of The USZeroHedge · 23 days agoAuthored by Curtis Hill via RealClearMarkets, California has decided it should dictate how the rest of America packages everything from cereal and soap to industrial spare parts. Seventeen Republican attorneys general have filed suit to…
California bill to cap concert ticket resale prices killed by lobbyistsPaste Magazine · 24 days agoPaste Magazine is your source for the best music, movies, TV, comedy, videogames, books, comics, craft beer, politics and more. Discover your favorite albums and films. California bill to cap concert ticket resale prices killed by…
Election 2026: Race for California’s 4th Congressional District, between veteran Thompson, newcomer Jones could hinge on whether DC experience is asset or liabilityThe Press Democrat · 24 days agoToward the end of an Oct. 7 debate televised by KCRA Sacramento, the moderators hit Rep. Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, Democratic rivals for the redrawn 4th District congressional seat, with a lightning round of yes-or-no…

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Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None

None98%
AK2%
All 7<1%▼ 3

125 more

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate winner? (2026)

98%Democratic party

Democratic party98%▲ 1
Republican party2%▼ 1

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer88%▼ 2
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 2
Brian Schatz1%▼ 1

10 more

Chris Murphy1%
Mark Warner<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Raphael Warnock<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Tammy Baldwin<1%
Jon Ossoff<1%
Ruben Gallego<1%
Jacky Rosen<1%

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
Brian Schatz2%▼ 1

8 more

John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate Election Winner

99%Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola99%
Sen. Dan Sullivan1%▼ 1
Ann Diener<1%

4 more

Dustin Darden<1%
Richard Grayson<1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1%
David Leslie<1%

Elections › Senate

Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)

99%Scott Colom

Scott Colom99%
Cindy Hyde-Smith2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Congress

Trading closesNov 7, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.5K (3,753 contracts)

Today$10

This week$758

At stake$574

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of California for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions