Illinois Senate winner? (2028)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 7, 2029 · $1 today · $3.2K traded · $2.5K at stake · prices read 64 min ago

The odds

98%Democratic party

Democratic party98%
Republican party2%

How the odds have moved

Democratic party: 95% on Oct 19, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Democratic party	98%		96¢	100¢		3.3K
Republican party	2%		0¢	4¢	$23.81	235

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Illinois Senate

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Stratton projected winner for U.S. Illinois Senate, replacing DurbinCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News Boston: Voters Decide CBS News Chicago: Voters Decide CBS News Detroit: Voters Decide CBS News Miami: Voters Decide CBS News: America Decides: Election 2026 CBS News New York: Voters Decide CBS News Philadelphia: Voters Decide CBS…
Julianna Stratton gives first remarks as projected winner in U.S. Illinois Senate raceCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News Boston: Voters Decide CBS News Chicago: Voters Decide CBS News Colorado: Voters Decide CBS News Detroit: Voters Decide CBS News Miami: Voters Decide CBS News New York: Voters Decide CBS News Philadelphia: Voters Decide CBS News…
Arlington Heights Trustee Santa Maria Wins Illinois Senate SeatArlington Heights · 5 days agoARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL — Arlington Heights Trustee Carina Santa Maria won election to the Illinois Senate on Tuesday, defeating Republican David Mathis to succeed outgoing Democratic Sen. Mark Walker in the 27th District. Santa Maria, a…
Indian American Nabeela Syed flips Republican-held Illinois Senate seatThe American Bazaar · 6 days agoIndian American politician Nabeela Syed has scored a major victory in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, defeating Republican Darby Hills to flip a Republican-held seat in the Illinois state Senate. Syed won Illinois Senate District 26…
Hyderabad-Rooted Nabeela Syed Wins Illinois Senate SeatHyderabad Mail · 6 days agoHYDERABAD: Nabeela Syed, a Democrat whose parents hail from Hyderabad, has won a seat in the Illinois State Senate, defeating Republican incumbent Darby Hills in the US midterm elections. Syed, 27, will represent the 26th Senate District…
Nabeela Syed flips Republican-held Illinois Senate seatMuslim Network TV · 6 days agoCHICAGO (MNTV) – Nabeela Syed, a Democratic state representative and one of the first Muslim women elected to the Illinois legislature, has won a seat in the state Senate, flipping a Republican-held district for her party. Syed defeated…
Juliana Stratton Wins Illinois Senate Race, Marks First Time Three Black Women Will Serve in SenateBlackNews.com · 5 days agoNationwide — Juliana Stratton has won the Illinois U.S. Senate race, defeating Republican Don Tracy in the November 3, 2026, election. Her victory makes her the second Black woman to […] The post Juliana Stratton Wins Illinois Senate Race…
Nabeela Syed, 27-Year-Old Democrat With Roots in Hyderabad, Flips Illinois Senate Seat in Record-Setting RaceAmerican Kahani · 4 days agoSyed won 57% of the vote, flipping a Republican-held seat as Democrats expanded their supermajority in Springfield. The daughter of immigrants from Hyderabad, India, she became the youngest woman and one of the first Muslims elected to the…
Illinois Senate, District 35Chicago Sun-Times · 6 days agoLive results for Illinois Senate District 35: Sarah Mertens and Dave Syverson. See vote totals from the Nov. 3, 2026, election. The following participated in the production, design and reporting of the voter guide.
Illinois Senate, District 36Chicago Sun-Times · 6 days agoIllinois Senate District 36 Election Results 2026 Chicago Sun-Times The following participated in the production, design and reporting of the voter guide.
Illinois Senate, District 38Chicago Sun-Times · 6 days agoLive results for Illinois Senate District 38: Ernie Marcelain and Sue Rezin. See vote totals from the Nov. 3, 2026, election. The following participated in the production, design and reporting of the voter guide.
Reproductive Freedom for All Celebrates as Juliana Stratton Wins Illinois Senate RaceReproductive Freedom for All® · 6 days agoWe're pulling out all the stops to ensure voters get out and vote for reproductive freedom candidates up and down the ballot, and we want you with us! The key races we're invested in between now and November 3 to win back a reproductive…

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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None

None98%
AK2%
All 7<1%▼ 3

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AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
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AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate winner? (2026)

98%Democratic party

Democratic party98%▲ 1
Republican party2%▼ 1

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Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer88%▼ 2
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 2
Brian Schatz1%▼ 1

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Chris Murphy1%
Mark Warner<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Raphael Warnock<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Tammy Baldwin<1%
Jon Ossoff<1%
Ruben Gallego<1%
Jacky Rosen<1%

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Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
Brian Schatz2%▼ 1

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John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

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Alaska Senate Election Winner

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Mary Peltola99%
Sen. Dan Sullivan1%▼ 1
Ann Diener<1%

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Dustin Darden<1%
Richard Grayson<1%
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Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)

99%Scott Colom

Scott Colom99%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Congress

Trading closesNov 7, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$3.2K (3,531 contracts)

Today$1

This week$349

At stake$2.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Illinois for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions