The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
✓ Joe Biden
>99%
100¢
100¢
$3K
✓ Barack Obama
>99%
▲ 4
100¢
100¢
$24.7K
✓ Marjorie Taylor Greene
>99%
▲ 43
96¢
100¢
$9.2K
✓ Jerome Powell
>99%
▲ 40
99¢
100¢
$2.2K
✓ Nicolás Maduro
>99%
99¢
100¢
$1K
✓ Jimmy Kimmel
>99%
▲ 84
100¢
100¢
$8.6K
✓ James Talarico
>99%
100¢
100¢
$631
✓ Abdul El-Sayed
>99%
▲ 7
100¢
100¢
$1.7K
✓ Kathy Hochul
>99%
▲ 6
100¢
100¢
$1.2K
✓ Ilhan Omar
>99%
▲ 37
100¢
100¢
$5.8K
✓ Letitia James
>99%
▲ 26
98¢
100¢
$356
✓ Jon Ossoff
>99%
▲ 4
100¢
100¢
$4.1K
✓ Gavin Newsom
>99%
▲ 17
100¢
100¢
$5.6K
✓ Thomas Massie
>99%
▲ 48
100¢
100¢
$3K
✓ Kamala Harris
>99%
▲ 23
97¢
100¢
$3.9K
✓ Hasan Piker
>99%
▲ 54
96¢
100¢
$3.5K
Kaitlan Collins
>99%
▲ 17
100¢
100¢
$6.6K
Elizabeth Warren
>99%
▲ 45
100¢
100¢
$2.3K
Ken Paxton
>99%
100¢
100¢
$765K
Chuck Schumer
100%
▲ 59
99¢
100¢
$5.8K
Hillary Clinton
97%
▲ 64
94¢
100¢
$6.1K
Tucker Carlson
16%
▲ 5
32¢
$3.13
$10K
Zohran Mamdani
6%
▼ 4
13¢
$7.87
$7.8K
Candace Owens
6%
11¢
$9.09
$9.3K
Mark Carney
5%
▲ 1
1¢
10¢
$10.42
$4.9K
Hakeem Jeffries
5%
▼ 4
10¢
$10.00
$6.7K
Emmanuel Macron
5%
9¢
$10.75
$2.5K
J.B. Pritzker
4%
8¢
$12.05
$1.3K
Stephen Colbert
4%
▼ 1
0¢
8¢
$13.33
$785
Andy Burnham
3%
▼ 1
5¢
$20.00
$1.9K
Vladimir Putin
2%
▲ 1
5¢
$22.22
$1.9K
Elon Musk
2%
0¢
3¢
$29.41
$472
Xi Jinping
2%
▲ 1
3¢
$32.26
$704
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
▼ 1
2¢
$50.00
$420
Pope Leo XIV
<1%
▼ 2
0¢
$2.9K
Benjamin Netanyahu
<1%
▼ 4
0¢
$2.7K
J.D. Vance
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$3.2K
Friedrich Merz
<1%
▼ 3
0¢
$4.3K
Kevin Warsh
<1%
▼ 2
0¢
$2.2K
Mike Rogers
<1%
▼ 5
0¢
$1K
Dario Amodei
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$333
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kaitlan Collins, Elizabeth Warren, Ken Paxton
After blue tsunami, Elizabeth Warren wants to regulate everythingWashington Examiner · 3 days agoWashington Examiner Conservative values, National renewal Democrats had a big night on Tuesday. They took back the House and Senate, flipped seats Republicans once considered safe, and handed Washington a result it will be chewing on for…
Elizabeth Warren Gears Up to Take On Wall StreetPolitical Wire · 15 h ago“Brace yourself for the most progressive — and aggressive — Senate Banking Committee chair in decades,” Politico reports. “Elizabeth Warren, the longtime Wall Street antagonist poised to take over the Banking panel next year, is preparing…
Kaitlan Collins Says White House Feels Like 'Knives Out' After Wiles ExitHeadlines Plus · 44 h agoCNN's Kaitlan Collins says the White House has a 'knives out' atmosphere following the departure of chief of staff Susie Wiles. The comments point to growing tension and jockeying inside the administration as staffers vie for influence…
Elizabeth Warren Dodges Subpoena List Questions in CBS Interview After MidtermsNewsbusters · 30 h agoWith the 2026 midterm election now mostly in the rear-view mirror, the Elitist Media are wasting no time cozying up to the new incoming congressional majority. In this case, it means suppressing publicly available evidence of the scope of…
Elizabeth Warren’s Role on the Senate Banking Committee May Hinder Crypto Legislationkucoin.com · 2 days agoChainCatcher report: Analyst qinbafrank analyzes the potential impact of Senator Elizabeth Warren becoming chair of the Senate Banking Committee. Warren has consistently advocated for extending anti-money laundering obligations to wallets…
How Texas Turned Against Ken Paxton: County Results ExplainedNewsweek · 4 days agoNov 05, 2026 at 06:00 AM EST Democrat James Talarico's victory over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton was powered by a coalition that Texas Democrats have spent decades trying to assemble: dominant support in the state's largest…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions