Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
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Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
The odds
64%No change
- No change64%
- 25 bps increase31%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease3%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease2%
How the odds have moved
No change: 44% on Oct 17, 64% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 3, 7 AM ETNo change: 65% → 49%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 30, 2 PM ETNo change: 60% → 44%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 22, 2 AM ETNo change: 57% → 71%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 64% | 64¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | $15.9K | |
| 25 bps increase | 31% | ▲ 1 | 31¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | $12.1K |
| 50+ bps decrease | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $1.5K | |
| 50+ bps increase | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $24.39 | $9.1K | |
| 25 bps decrease | 2% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $22.22 | $1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Central Bank of Colombia
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions