France declares state of emergency by...?

Polymarket World › Europe Closes Dec 31 · $34K today · $2.8M traded · $214K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

2%December 31

October 31<1%▼ 1
December 312%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

October 31: 14% on Oct 20, <1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
October 21	<1%			0¢		$45.4K
October 31	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$565K
December 31	2%	▼ 2	2¢	2¢	$50.00	$2.2M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: France

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France protests widenNPR · 4 days agoLargely peaceful demonstrations took place across France on Thursday, and trade unions went on strike over the cost of living. The Eiffel Tower was closed for the day. ELEANOR BEARDSLEY, BYLINE: Hi, Mary Louise. KELLY: Hey. So what was it…
Hundreds of thousands protest in FranceCBS News · 4 days agoHundreds of thousands of protestors are flooding streets across France as public workers and students join forces in a growing wave of demonstrations. They're demanding higher pay, better conditions and more support for schools. The show…
A series of cyber attacks rattles Francesemafor.com · 4 days agoA French bank said hackers stole €100 million, following attacks on a blood bank and supermarket fridges. A French bank said hackers stole â¬100 million ($112 million), a rare heist of a mainstream lender that has sent shudders across…
Trade unions join growing protests in FranceNPR · 4 days agoNPR Trade unions join growing protests in France Demonstrations continued across France Thursday, as trade unions went on strike over the cost of living. NPR does not offer or accept money for coverage or interviews. Become an NPR sponsor
France on edge amid calls for more protestsFox News · 3 days agoFox News senior foreign affairs correspondent Greg Palkot reports on nationwide protests and violent clashes in France on ‘The Faulkner Focus.’ France on edge amid calls for more protests Fox News senior foreign affairs correspondent Greg…
Protestors in France start fires, clash with policeFox News · 3 days agoFox News Protestors in France start fires, clash with police Fox News' Jeff Paul reports from London on the widespread protests in France, where more than 600,000 people rallied on 'Black Thursday.' Fox News' Jeff Paul reports from London…
France’s ‘Black Thursday’: A warning for AmericaFox News · 3 days agoFox News France’s ‘Black Thursday’: A warning for America Fox News political analyst Guy Benson warns that the massive France riots are a preview of what could happen in the United States due to uncontrolled migration, citizen anger and…
BBC Audio | Newshour | More huge protests in FranceBBC News · 4 days agoNewshour | More huge protests in France BBC More huge protests in France Available for 29 days Tens of thousands of people in France demonstrate against the rising cost of living - with the police also out in big numbers. We hear from one…
France deploys 70,000 police as nationwide protests escalateFox News · 4 days agoFox News France deploys 70,000 police as nationwide protests escalate Police confront protesters across France as nationwide demonstrations intensify, forcing the Eiffel Tower to close and prompting authorities to deploy 70,000 officers.
France braces for a nationwide general strikesemafor.com · 5 days agoToday’s protests bring together students, labor unions, and the “yellow vest” movement. French authorities were braced for a nationwide general strike over public services and cost-of-living concerns, demonstrations that showcase growing…
More than 600,000 protest in France on 'Black Thursday' #shortsFox News · 3 days agoFox News More than 600,000 protest in France on 'Black Thursday' #shorts Fox News' Chanley Painter reports after more than 600,000 participated in the latest France protests, leading to more than 400 arrests.
France protests prompt deployment of 70,000 police officersFox News · 4 days agoFox News France protests prompt deployment of 70,000 police officers ‘Fox & Friends’ co-host Ainsley Earhardt reports on massive protests across France as 70,000 police officers are deployed nationwide.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$2.8M

Today$34K

This week$97.2K

At stake$214K

In the news225 headlines today, 1,737 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regi

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions