Curfew in a major French city by...?
>99%October 24
- October 24>99%▲ 69
- October 31>99%▲ 68
- November 15>99%▲ 63
1 more
- December 31>99%▲ 49
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Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
The odds
19%March 31, 2027
- December 31, 20265%▲ 1
- March 31, 202719%▼ 7
How the odds have moved
December 31, 2026: 12% on Oct 20, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | $296K |
| March 31, 2027 | 19% | ▼ 7 | 16¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | $10.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Nigel Farage, Reform UK
Search ›- Nigel Farage’s exit from the Telegraph may be cause for cheer. But there’s a sobering side to this storyThe clear-out at the newspaper seems driven less by politics than by a shift towards AI – and journalism will pay the price Nigel Farage has been writing columns for the Daily Telegraph since 2016, most of which have promoted the…
- Nigel Farage and Reform UK finally have a chance to show willingness to lead on defenceThe party must set out a clear vision for Ukraine, Nato and Britain's armed forces, writes Major General Tim Cross Nigel Farage's Reform party appoint new defence spokesperson. By Maj Gen Tim Cross Why has it taken so long for Nigel Farage…
- Politics LIVE: Nigel Farage makes major Reform UK announcement in speechNigel Farage will unveil Reform UK's armed forces spokesman at a press conference this afternoon. Angus MacIntyre, an RAF Wing Commander with a military career spanning 40 years, will be announced for the key role. Mr MacIntyre, who has…
- Reform UK councillor promoted collapsed $1.9bn ‘Ponzi scheme’ HyperVerse that left victims suicidalA woman who promoted a notorious cryptocurrency scam has been elected as a Reform UK councillor and now sits on the audit and risk committee of a major city council. Susan Lawrence was one of the main UK promoters of the HyperVerse…
- Kemi Badenoch storms to an eight-point poll lead over Nigel Farage as voters back her tax-cutting policiesKemi Badenoch has received a stunning poll boost after a new survey gave the Conservatives an eight–point lead over Nigel Farage's Reform UK. The poll will be welcomed by Tory strategists as a sign that the party is building momentum under…
- Can Brexit save Nigel Farage again?Britain’s prime minister Andy Burnham and European Union leaders are off to Brussels later this month for the EU-UK summit. So is Nigel Farage. The embattled Reform UK leader and spiritual sensei of the Brexiteer movement has endured a…
- Nigel Farage reveals Remembrance Sunday plan after huge row over 'Establishment Cenotaph ban'The Reform UK leader watched from the Foreign Office balcony in November 2024 WATCH NOW: Nigel Farage reacts to Donald Trump's midterm defeat Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has confirmed he will lay a wreath at the Cenotaph on Remembrance…
- Nigel Farage's new defence guru vows end Northern Ireland veteran 'witch-hunt'Veterans being hounded through the courts by lawfare will be spared in the first 100 days of a Reform UK government, Angus MacIntyre has pledged. Speaking to the Daily Express, Nigel Farage's new defence spokesman slammed the treatment of…
- Andy Burnham dealt embarrassing by-election blow – but Nigel Farage can't cash in on Labour collapseThe Labour candidate failed to win back his deposit as support the Prime Minister's party plummeted WATCH: Nigel Farage claims Andy Burnham has already secured Labour's defeat at next election with Brexit 'betrayal' Andy Burnham has been…
- Nigel Farage blasts President Donald Trump for 'failing to keep promises'Nigel Farage has scolded his friend Donald Trump for 'failing to keep promises' in his first remarks since the US President suffered a drubbing in this week's midterm elections. The Reform UK leader also branded the US's eight–month…
- Nigel Farage turns on Donald Trump over Iran war before admitting midterms blunderThe Reform UK leader joined the US President on the 2016 campaign trail Nigel Farage delivers his verdict on the GOP's defeat Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has turned on Donald Trump after warning the US President will "aggressively"…
- Nigel Farage hits back at 'utter b******s' Russia claims before warning Vladimir Putin poses huge threatAmbulance workers targeted with fireworks in Bonfire Night disorder The Reform UK leader issued the warning following a row over his remarks about Crimea Nigel Farage delivers his verdict on the US midterms Mr Farage, who unveiled military…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions