Curfew in a major French city by...?
>99%October 24
- October 24>99%▲ 69
- October 31>99%▲ 68
- November 15>99%▲ 63
1 more
- December 31>99%▲ 49
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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
The odds
38%December 31, 2027
- October 31, 2026<1%
- November 30, 20261%
- December 31, 20263%
- March 31, 20275%
- June 30, 202723%▲ 1
- December 31, 202738%
How the odds have moved
November 30, 2026: 3% on Oct 20, 1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $392K | |||
| October 31, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $175K | |||
| November 30, 2026 | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $83.33 | $48.4K | |
| December 31, 2026 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | $2.5M | |
| March 31, 2027 | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $56.3K | |
| June 30, 2027 | 23% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | $11.8K |
| December 31, 2027 | 38% | 37¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | $15.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz
Search ›- Friedrich Merz Net WorthFriedrich Merz is a German politician, lawyer, and former corporate executive who has a net worth of $15 million. Friedrich Merz was born on November 11, 1955, in Brilon, West Germany. He grew up in the Sauerland region of North…
- Friedrich Merz Says Donald Trump Will Bypass Congress After US Midterm LossesPublished 5 Nov 2026, 11:24 UTC Merz expects Trump to continue bypassing Congress after midterm losses. He does not expect a fundamental shift in Trump's policy agenda. 5 outlets told this the same way. Outlets did split on Melania Trump…
- Merz, Trump agree in call war in Ukraine should end "as soon as possible"U.S President Donald Trump and Federal Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz held a telephone conversation during which they discussed the war in Ukraine, Handelsblatt reported, citing German government spokesman Stefan Cornelius…
- The race is on to build the first fusion power plant — and Europe is looking to Japan for helpThe race is on to build the world's first commercial fusion power plant — and one of Europe's leading contenders in the field has just received a boost. Munich-based Proxima Fusion signed memoranda of understanding with two Japanese…
- Trump teases ‘big, beautiful’ European security deal after meeting Putin envoyUS President Donald Trump has promised a new security deal for Ukraine that “might involve all of Europe,” after meeting a top Russian envoy on Thursday – but the proposal has few details and left European capitals puzzled. “It’s going to…
- US rockets firm could take over mothballed Highland spaceportThe spaceport site is on the A' Mhoine Peninsula in Sutherland A rockets manufacturer says the mothballed Sutherland Spaceport could become its first launch site outside the US. Colorado-based Leap has agreed to work with Highlands and…
- artificial intelligence: Friedrich Merz says Germany must preserve 'digital sovereignty' in AI eraFriedrich Merz says Germany must preserve 'digital sovereignty' in AI era The Economic Times Germany and Europe must move more quickly to develop their own artificial intelligence capabilities to protect their "digital sovereignty" in an…
- German Chancellor: Muslim immigrants who reject Holocaust responsibility should leaveChancellor Friedrich Merz says Muslim immigrants must accept Germany's historical responsibility for the Holocaust amid rising antisemitism and threats to Jews. German Chancellor: Muslim immigrants who reject Holocaust responsibility…
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz says Germany and Europe must build their own AI more quicklyThe German chancellor called digital sovereignty in AI “a truly existential question” at a conference in Berlin. German chancellor Friedrich Merz at the Charlemagne Prize ceremony in Aachen, May 2026 Germany and Europe must move faster to…
- Merz to discuss further support for Ukraine with MagyarGerman Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz will hold talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar in Berlin on November 10, with further support for Ukraine among the topics on the agenda. â Ukrinform. Ukrinform - Ukrainian National…
- Germany's Merz will discuss continued support for Ukraine with Hungarian PMДолучайтеся до клубу УП! German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will hold talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar in Berlin on 10 November, with continued support for Ukraine among the issues on the agenda. Source: German Federal…
- Merz says Germany working to end Iran war that has cost Europe $112bnGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said that Germany was working to bring Iran war to an end as soon as possible as the conflict has added more than 100 billion euros ($112bn) to Europe’s energy costs over the past eight months. Speaking…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions