Curfew in a major French city by...?
>99%October 24
- October 24>99%▲ 69
- October 31>99%▲ 68
- November 15>99%▲ 63
1 more
- December 31>99%▲ 49
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Macron out by...?
The odds
1%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 20261%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
December 31, 2026: 4% on Oct 20, 1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31, 2025 | <1% | 0¢ | $206K | |||
| December 31, 2025 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.4M | |||
| June 30, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $476K | |||
| July 31, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $60.8K | |||
| December 31, 2026 | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $45.45 | $13K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Macron
Search ›- Macrons sue far-right podcaster Candace Owens personally in TennesseeThe latest move by the French president and his wife comes after a court in Delaware ruled it only had jurisdiction over Owens’ corporations registered in the state. PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte, filed a…
- Macrons take Candace Owens to court in her home stateThe Macrons are not about to let their case against the far-right media figure Candace Owens go and have now taken their lawsuit to her home turf. In her home state of Tennessee, French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte have…
- Macron's diplomatic adviser to represent France at Abu Dhabi talksEmmanuel Bonne, head of the diplomatic office at the Élysée Palace, will represent France in Abu Dhabi, where Ukraine-Russia talks mediated by the United States are scheduled for November 10-11. â Ukrinform. Ukrinform - Ukrainian…
- Macron's popularity plunges to lowest level since taking officeFrench President Emmanuel Macron's approval rating fell by a further seven percentage points in November, reaching 12% - its lowest level since he took office at the Élysée Palace. This was highlighted in a monthly poll conducted by YouGov…
- Why has Macron taken so long to confront France’s racism?Trump to meet Qatar PM; no imminent deal to end Iran war Zohran Mamdani courts unions to shape 2028 US presidential race Masoud Barzani calls for talks with PUK amid Kurdish crisis Can Starlink keep Lebanon connected in the event of…
- Macron pushes for tighter AI safety rules at international talksFrench President Emmanuel Macron is pushing for tighter regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) amid growing concerns over the security risks posed by the technology. Macron brought together around 50 participants, including world…
- Macron wants AI ban wherever it threatens childrenPARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that artificial intelligence should be banned wherever it poses a risk to the mental health of children. Macron, who is also pushing for a ban on certain social networks for those…
- Russian Disinformation Network Exploited French Protests to Undermine Macron, EU Report FindsA covert Russian disinformation network used the wave of protests that swept France in October 2026 to spread fabricated news reports, exaggerate social tensions and portray President Emmanuel Macron’s government as incapable of…
- Macron-backed AI giant targets British defence workA French AI giant championed by Emmanuel Macron, the French president, is on the hunt for British defence work as it seeks to sell itself as an alternative to Silicon Valley. The €21bn (£19bn) Paris-based lab is hiring experts who can help…
- French President Emmanuel Macron to visit Cambodia on November 14-16Macron's state visit to Cambodia marks the first by a French president since 1993, with agreements on economy, investment, culture and defence French President Emmanuel Macron will make a state visit to Cambodia on November 14-16, meeting…
- Canada’s Carney, France’s Macron and Sri Lanka’s Dissanayake extend Diwali greetingsNew Delhi: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, French President Emmanuel Macron, Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan were among the world leaders who extended greetings on…
- France's Macron welcomes judo star Teddy Riner's entrance in 2027 presidential racePublished Nov 10, 2026, 05:33 AM PARIS, Nov 9 - French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday welcomed news that judo champion Teddy Riner, one of France's best-known sports figures, was running in France's 2027 presidential election. •…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions