Export-control chip security: 32% on Oct 20, 41% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
✓ Housing for the 21st Century Act
>99%
100¢
100¢
$46K
Export-control chip security
41%
▼ 1
40¢
42¢
$2.38
$6K
AI-chip export licensing
19%
▲ 5
16¢
22¢
$4.55
$8.9K
Data center utility cost protection
18%
▲ 3
14¢
21¢
$4.76
$4.9K
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
9%
▼ 1
8¢
10¢
$10.00
$12K
DEFIANCE Act
8%
6¢
9¢
$10.99
$1.6K
Critical-minerals stockpile
7%
6¢
8¢
$12.50
$2.3K
Credit-card routing competition
7%
6¢
8¢
$12.50
$1.4K
Film/TV production expensing
5%
3¢
7¢
$14.93
$4K
SHOWER Act
5%
4¢
5¢
$18.87
$1.1K
SELF DRIVE Act
4%
▼ 1
3¢
6¢
$16.95
$958
NO FAKES Act
4%
▼ 7
3¢
5¢
$20.00
$2K
$2.50 Coin
4%
2¢
5¢
$20.00
$1K
Trump Airport
3%
2¢
5¢
$20.00
$2.8K
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
3%
1¢
5¢
$22.22
$4.5K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions