2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $17.6K today · $699K traded · $173K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

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The odds

96%Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon96%
Nathalie Arthaud94%▲ 1
Marine Le Pen91%▲ 2
Raphaël Glucksmann84%▲ 3
Fabien Roussel84%
David Lisnard83%▲ 1
Éric Zemmour71%▲ 1
Édouard Philippe68%▲ 1
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan61%▼ 2
Dominique de Villepin35%▼ 5
Bruno Retailleau28%▼ 4
Marine Tondelier26%▲ 3

34 more

François Hollande25%▼ 1
Teddy Riner25%▲ 19
François Asselineau22%▲ 5
Gabriel Attal20%▼ 1
Sarah Knafo14%▼ 1
François Ruffin14%
Xavier Bertrand11%
Jordan Bardella8%
Matthieu Pigasse6%
Michel Barnier6%
Jean-Michel Fauvergue6%
Bally Bagayoko5%
Sébastien Lecornu5%
Michel-Edouard Leclerc5%▼ 1
Yaël Braun-Pivet5%
Philippe de Villiers5%
François Bayrou5%▼ 1
Carole Delga4%▼ 1
Manuel Valls4%
Élisabeth Borne4%
Manuel Bompard4%▼ 1
Olivier Faure4%▼ 1
Mathilde Panot4%▼ 1
Jean Castex4%▼ 1
Gérald Darmanin4%
Bernard Cazeneuve4%
Karim Bouamrane4%▼ 1
Delphine Batho4%▼ 1
Laurent Wauquiez3%
Jérôme Guedj3%▼ 1
Juan Branco3%▼ 2
Ségolène Royal3%
Valérie Pécresse3%▼ 1
Clémentine Autain2%

How the odds have moved

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 94% on Oct 20, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	96%		95¢	97¢	$1.03	$34.1K
Nathalie Arthaud	94%	▲ 1	92¢	95¢	$1.05	$10K
Marine Le Pen	91%	▲ 2	90¢	91¢	$1.10	$42.5K
Raphaël Glucksmann	84%	▲ 3	83¢	85¢	$1.18	$32.9K
Fabien Roussel	84%		82¢	85¢	$1.18	$7.4K
David Lisnard	83%	▲ 1	80¢	85¢	$1.18	$36.3K
Éric Zemmour	71%	▲ 1	70¢	71¢	$1.41	$22K
Édouard Philippe	68%	▲ 1	66¢	69¢	$1.45	$26.7K
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	61%	▼ 2	59¢	63¢	$1.59	$3.7K
Dominique de Villepin	35%	▼ 5	32¢	37¢	$2.70	$25.5K
Bruno Retailleau	28%	▼ 4	24¢	33¢	$3.03	$22.6K
Marine Tondelier	26%	▲ 3	25¢	26¢	$3.85	$17.6K
François Hollande	25%	▼ 1	24¢	26¢	$3.85	$48.3K
Teddy Riner	25%	▲ 19	22¢	28¢	$3.58	$36.4K
François Asselineau	22%	▲ 5	19¢	24¢	$4.17	$18.9K
Gabriel Attal	20%	▼ 1	19¢	20¢	$5.00	$23.5K
Sarah Knafo	14%	▼ 1	14¢	15¢	$6.67	$42.2K
François Ruffin	14%		11¢	17¢	$5.88	$4.1K
Xavier Bertrand	11%		11¢	12¢	$8.20	$16.8K
Jordan Bardella	8%		7¢	8¢	$12.50	$35.1K
Matthieu Pigasse	6%		5¢	7¢	$14.08	$17.7K
Michel Barnier	6%		6¢	6¢	$16.13	$3.5K
Jean-Michel Fauvergue	6%		4¢	7¢	$14.29	$4.6K
Bally Bagayoko	5%		5¢	6¢	$16.39	$11.1K
Sébastien Lecornu	5%		5¢	6¢	$16.67	$8.8K
Michel-Edouard Leclerc	5%	▼ 1	4¢	6¢	$16.39	$11.7K
Yaël Braun-Pivet	5%		4¢	6¢	$17.54	$1.9K
Philippe de Villiers	5%		4¢	5¢	$18.87	$4.6K
François Bayrou	5%	▼ 1	4¢	6¢	$18.18	$5.5K
Carole Delga	4%	▼ 1	3¢	5¢	$19.61	$5.2K
Manuel Valls	4%		4¢	4¢	$23.26	$1.3K
Élisabeth Borne	4%		3¢	5¢	$21.74	$3.7K
Manuel Bompard	4%	▼ 1	3¢	5¢	$20.41	$4.6K
Olivier Faure	4%	▼ 1	2¢	5¢	$18.52	$8.6K
Mathilde Panot	4%	▼ 1	3¢	4¢	$22.73	$3.4K
Jean Castex	4%	▼ 1	3¢	5¢	$20.83	$4K
Gérald Darmanin	4%		3¢	4¢	$23.81	$6.2K
Bernard Cazeneuve	4%		3¢	4¢	$25.64	$13.6K
Karim Bouamrane	4%	▼ 1	2¢	5¢	$20.41	$11.5K
Delphine Batho	4%	▼ 1	2¢	5¢	$20.41	$5.1K
Laurent Wauquiez	3%		3¢	3¢	$29.41	$21.7K
Jérôme Guedj	3%	▼ 1	2¢	4¢	$23.26	$8.7K
Juan Branco	3%	▼ 2	2¢	4¢	$23.26	$14.6K
Ségolène Royal	3%		2¢	4¢	$27.78	$6.1K
Valérie Pécresse	3%	▼ 1	2¢	4¢	$27.03	$1.5K
Clémentine Autain	2%		1¢	3¢	$31.25	$2.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?Nathalie ArthaudKalshi 77%Polymarket 94%17 pts apart

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

95%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen95%▲ 3
Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%▼ 3
Raphaël Glucksmann84%▲ 6
Fabien Roussel82%▲ 3

19 more

Nathalie Arthaud77%▼ 13
Éric Zemmour73%▼ 2
Édouard Philippe70%▼ 5
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan68%▲ 3
Jean Lassalle65%▼ 12
Dominique de Villepin35%▼ 2
Bruno Retailleau28%▼ 7
François Hollande26%▼ 1
François Ruffin24%▲ 6
Gabriel Attal24%
Marine Tondelier20%▼ 4
François Asselineau14%▼ 3
Jordan Bardella8%▼ 1
Jérôme Guedj6%▼ 1
Bernard Cazeneuve6%▼ 1
Gérald Darmanin5%
Clémentine Autain5%▲ 1
Olivier Faure3%▼ 2
Karim Bouamrane3%▼ 4

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: French Presidential, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Nathalie Arthaud

Search ›

Will France's protests boost Marine Le Pen's chances in the presidential election?NPR · 16 h agoAs France heads toward a presidential election, Marine Le Pen's far-right party is gaining support. How much has it changed — and could the street violence help revive its extremist past? Will France's protests boost Marine Le Pen's…
Marine Le Pen says "there is no discrimination in France" as she floats expelling immigrants who don't assimilateCBS News · 26 h agoNovember 8, 2026 / 7:00 PM EST / CBS News A stagnating economy has fueled protests across France in recent weeks — and is driving support for extremist politicians. One person who may benefit from the strife in the streets: Marine Le Pen…
French protests could benefit far-right political leader Marine Le PenCBS News · 26 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. French protests may…
Antifa will be designated a banned terrorist group under plans drawn up by Marine Le Pen's National Rally partyDaily Mail · 16 h agoMarine Le Pen's National Rally party is planning to list Antifa as a banned terrorist group if it wins the elections next year. The party's leader, Jordan Bardella, has been chosen by National Rally presidential candidate Le Pen to serve…
Marine Le Pen is coming after Kaja KallasPOLITICO · 29 h agoThe EU’s diplomatic chief has clashed with Ursula von der Leyen and now the French presidential frontrunner is joining in. PARIS — EU diplomatic chief Kaja Kallas has another enemy who wants her out: Marine Le Pen. The far-right French…
Marine Le Pen is keeping Nigel Farage at arm’s lengthThe Spectator Australia · 41 h agoThe left in France believe that Donald Trump’s mid-term mauling is an omen. The Greens, Socialists and the far-left La France insoumise are convinced that the age of ‘populism’ is over. Trump is finished and so too, they cheer, is Marine…
French presidential hopeful Melenchon pledges economic stimulus, renews NATO exit callDevdiscourse · 2 days agoRead more about French presidential hopeful Melenchon pledges economic stimulus, renews NATO exit call on Devdiscourse French presidential hopeful Melenchon pledges economic stimulus, renews NATO exit call Jean-Luc Melenchon criticised…
Le Pen and Melenchon ahead in 2027 French presidential race, poll showsBrecorder · 17 h agoFrench far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon are consolidating their lead in presidential election polls, reflecting intensifying political polarization as Macron's term ends. PARIS: French far-right leader…
French Presidential Hopeful Accused of Echoing Kremlin Propaganda on UkraineKyiv Post · 18 h agoIn brief: French far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon faces backlash after suggesting that residents of Ukrainian territories should vote on any land concessions under a peace deal, with critics accusing him of repeating Kremlin talking…
French presidential hopeful Melenchon pledges minimum wage rise, retirement at 60@arabnews · 2 days agoPARIS: Jean-Luc Melenchon, the hard-left French presidential hopeful, will pledge to raise the minimum wage and restore the country’s retirement age to 60 when he launches his 2027 election program on Saturday. Melenchon, 75, is viewed as…
French presidential candidate vows to send navy to protect Gaza flotillas and confront IsraelWIN · 42 h agoThe left-wing candidate in France’s upcoming presidential election says he will use the country’s navy to escort pro-Hamas flotillas to the Gaza Strip, vowing to confront Israel if he wins. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate in…
French presidential candidate proposes withdrawing from NATO in election platformTASS · 3 days agoPARIS, November 6. /TASS/. The left-wing France Unbowed party’s 2027 presidential candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon, has proposed gradually withdrawing from NATO and rejecting the US demand that France spend 5% of its gross domestic product on…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$699K

Today$17.6K

This week$59.9K

At stake$173K

In the news8 headlines today, 21 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions