2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $791 today · $12.8K traded · $6.7K at stake · prices read 14 min ago

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The odds

95%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen95%▲ 4
Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%▼ 3
Raphaël Glucksmann84%▲ 6
Fabien Roussel82%▲ 3
Nathalie Arthaud77%▼ 13
Éric Zemmour73%▼ 2
Édouard Philippe71%▼ 4
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan68%▲ 3
Jean Lassalle65%▼ 12
Dominique de Villepin35%▼ 2
Bruno Retailleau28%▼ 7
François Hollande26%▼ 1

11 more

François Ruffin24%▲ 6
Gabriel Attal24%
Marine Tondelier20%▼ 4
François Asselineau14%▼ 3
Jordan Bardella8%▼ 1
Jérôme Guedj6%▼ 1
Bernard Cazeneuve5%▼ 2
Gérald Darmanin5%
Clémentine Autain5%▲ 1
Olivier Faure3%▼ 2
Karim Bouamrane3%▼ 4

How the odds have moved

Marine Le Pen: 97% on Oct 20, 95% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Marine Le Pen	95%	▲ 4	92¢	97¢	$1.03	351
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	94%	▼ 3	89¢	99¢	$1.01	6.00
Raphaël Glucksmann	84%	▲ 6	81¢	86¢	$1.16	3.2K
Fabien Roussel	82%	▲ 3	77¢	91¢	$1.10	633
Nathalie Arthaud	77%	▼ 13	86¢	98¢	$1.02	9.00
Éric Zemmour	73%	▼ 2	70¢	75¢	$1.33	5.0K
Édouard Philippe	71%	▼ 4	67¢	74¢	$1.35	1.1K
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	68%	▲ 3	53¢	70¢	$1.43	194
Jean Lassalle	65%	▼ 12	36¢	86¢	$1.16	914
Dominique de Villepin	35%	▼ 2	31¢	38¢	$2.63	2.0K
Bruno Retailleau	28%	▼ 7	23¢	35¢	$2.86	3.9K
François Hollande	26%	▼ 1	23¢	28¢	$3.57	3.2K
François Ruffin	24%	▲ 6	5¢	22¢	$4.55	413
Gabriel Attal	24%		23¢	24¢	$4.17	5.6K
Marine Tondelier	20%	▼ 4	18¢	32¢	$3.13	140
François Asselineau	14%	▼ 3	14¢	29¢	$3.45	338
Jordan Bardella	8%	▼ 1	3¢	12¢	$8.33	495
Jérôme Guedj	6%	▼ 1	3¢	9¢	$11.11	272
Bernard Cazeneuve	5%	▼ 2	2¢	8¢	$12.50	696
Gérald Darmanin	5%		1¢	9¢	$11.11
Clémentine Autain	5%	▲ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.50	1.00
Olivier Faure	3%	▼ 2	1¢	5¢	$20.00	559
Karim Bouamrane	3%	▼ 4		11¢	$9.09	365

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?Nathalie ArthaudKalshi 77%Polymarket 94%17 pts apart

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

96%Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon96%
Nathalie Arthaud94%▲ 1
Marine Le Pen91%▼ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann84%▲ 3

42 more

Fabien Roussel84%
David Lisnard83%▲ 1
Éric Zemmour71%▲ 1
Édouard Philippe68%▲ 1
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan62%▼ 2
Dominique de Villepin35%▼ 3
Bruno Retailleau28%▼ 4
François Hollande26%▼ 1
Marine Tondelier26%▲ 3
Teddy Riner25%▲ 19
François Asselineau22%▲ 5
Gabriel Attal20%▼ 1
Sarah Knafo14%▼ 1
François Ruffin14%
Xavier Bertrand11%
Jordan Bardella8%
Matthieu Pigasse6%
Michel Barnier6%
Jean-Michel Fauvergue6%
Bally Bagayoko5%
Sébastien Lecornu5%
Michel-Edouard Leclerc5%▼ 1
Yaël Braun-Pivet5%▼ 1
Philippe de Villiers5%
François Bayrou5%▼ 1
Olivier Faure4%▼ 1
Manuel Valls4%
Carole Delga4%▼ 1
Manuel Bompard4%▼ 1
Delphine Batho4%
Élisabeth Borne4%
Mathilde Panot4%▼ 1
Gérald Darmanin4%
Bernard Cazeneuve4%
Karim Bouamrane4%▼ 1
Juan Branco4%▼ 2
Jean Castex3%▼ 1
Laurent Wauquiez3%
Jérôme Guedj3%▼ 1
Valérie Pécresse3%▼ 1
Ségolène Royal2%
Clémentine Autain2%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: French Presidential, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Search ›

Will France's protests boost Marine Le Pen's chances in the presidential election?NPR · 18 h agoAs France heads toward a presidential election, Marine Le Pen's far-right party is gaining support. How much has it changed — and could the street violence help revive its extremist past? Will France's protests boost Marine Le Pen's…
Olympics Medallist Teddy Riner Enters French Presidential RaceDeadline · 16 h agoFrench judo world champion Teddy Riner has announced his intention to run as a candidate in France‘s presidential elections in 2027 to replace incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. Heavyweight Judoka Riner is a nine-time world champion in…
Marine Le Pen says "there is no discrimination in France" as she floats expelling immigrants who don't assimilateCBS News · 27 h agoNovember 8, 2026 / 7:00 PM EST / CBS News A stagnating economy has fueled protests across France in recent weeks — and is driving support for extremist politicians. One person who may benefit from the strife in the streets: Marine Le Pen…
French protests could benefit far-right political leader Marine Le PenCBS News · 27 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. French protests may…
Antifa will be designated a banned terrorist group under plans drawn up by Marine Le Pen's National Rally partyDaily Mail · 17 h agoMarine Le Pen's National Rally party is planning to list Antifa as a banned terrorist group if it wins the elections next year. The party's leader, Jordan Bardella, has been chosen by National Rally presidential candidate Le Pen to serve…
Marine Le Pen is coming after Kaja KallasPOLITICO · 30 h agoThe EU’s diplomatic chief has clashed with Ursula von der Leyen and now the French presidential frontrunner is joining in. PARIS — EU diplomatic chief Kaja Kallas has another enemy who wants her out: Marine Le Pen. The far-right French…
Judo Star Teddy Riner Enters French Presidential Race, Seeks To Unite FranceOutlook India · 10 h agoTeddy Riner, the French judo star and five-times Olympic gold medallist, has announced plans to run in next year’s presidential election, saying he wants to unite France ahead of the April-May ballot Teddy Riner has announced plans to…
Marine Le Pen is keeping Nigel Farage at arm’s lengthThe Spectator Australia · 43 h agoThe left in France believe that Donald Trump’s mid-term mauling is an omen. The Greens, Socialists and the far-left La France insoumise are convinced that the age of ‘populism’ is over. Trump is finished and so too, they cheer, is Marine…
French Presidential Hopeful Accused of Echoing Kremlin Propaganda on UkraineKyiv Post · 19 h agoIn brief: French far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon faces backlash after suggesting that residents of Ukrainian territories should vote on any land concessions under a peace deal, with critics accusing him of repeating Kremlin talking…
Judo star Teddy Riner announces a run for French president, pledging to bring people togetherNBC News · 14 h agoMorning Rundown: Tech titan targeted by alleged Chinese spy, tension in Philadelphia over boycott of Jewish businesses, and Congress returns with big to-do list Judo star Teddy Riner wants to be the next French president. The 37-year-old…
Le Pen and Melenchon ahead in 2027 French presidential race, poll showsBrecorder · 18 h agoFrench far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon are consolidating their lead in presidential election polls, reflecting intensifying political polarization as Macron's term ends. PARIS: French far-right leader…
French presidential hopeful Melenchon pledges economic stimulus, renews NATO exit callDevdiscourse · 2 days agoRead more about French presidential hopeful Melenchon pledges economic stimulus, renews NATO exit call on Devdiscourse French presidential hopeful Melenchon pledges economic stimulus, renews NATO exit call Jean-Luc Melenchon criticised…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onConseil constitutionnel

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$12.8K (29,349 contracts)

Today$791

This week$785

At stake$6.7K

In the news10 headlines today, 33 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Jean-Luc Mélenchon is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions