Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

Polymarket Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31 · $30 today · $83K traded · $6K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

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The odds

2%December 31
  • December 312%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

December 31: 6% on Oct 20, 2% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
May 31 <1% 0¢ $303K
June 30 <1% 0¢ $492K
December 31 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 3¢ $34.48 $34.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Raul Castro, Ex-Cuba

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  • Ceremony held to mark 60th anniversary of Gen. Raul Castro Ruz's first visit to Viet NamNhan Dan Online · 10 days agoThe Cuban Embassy in Viet Nam held a ceremony in Ha Noi on October 30 to mark the 60th anniversary of the first visit to Viet Nam by Cuban revolutionary leader Gen. Raul Castro Ruz. Addressing the ceremony, Cuban Ambassador to Viet Nam…
  • Who Holds Real Power in CubaThe Rio Times · 7 days agoCuba is run by one party, a military-led business empire and a shrinking circle around the Castro family. Here is who holds power, who is shut out and what it means in November 2026. Power in Cuba sits with the Communist Party, the armed…
  • Warfare that decides for itselfGranma · 6 days agoHAVANA, NOVEMBER 3, 2026 The initiative, revealed by The Intercept last week based on documents from Army Cyber ​​Command, bears the codename "Echotribble." The concept may sound like science fiction, but the project outlines a concrete…
  • China Rejects Warrant Against Raúl CastroThe Rio Times · 12 days ago—What happened. China’s foreign ministry rejected the Florida arrest warrant for Raúl Castro. —Who spoke. Spokesperson Mao Ning, at the regular Beijing briefing on Wednesday 21 October. —What China wants. The US should end its embargo and…
  • 2 killed, 2 injured in shooting in Monterey County, CaliforniaBNO News · 7 days agoNew York reports first measles-related death in more than 30 years Washington state resident dies from bird flu as another case is confirmed All 9 victims identified in Florida business jet crash NTSB find signs of midair breakup in…
  • How Rideshare Insurance Gets Complicated After a CrashBNO News · 7 days agoNew York reports first measles-related death in more than 30 years Washington state resident dies from bird flu as another case is confirmed All 9 victims identified in Florida business jet crash NTSB find signs of midair breakup in…
  • After a Hill Country Crash: Texas Injury Claim RulesBNO News · 7 days agoNew York reports first measles-related death in more than 30 years Washington state resident dies from bird flu as another case is confirmed All 9 victims identified in Florida business jet crash NTSB find signs of midair breakup in…
  • Why Global Product Teams Turn to UI/UX Agencies in IndiaBNO News · 7 days agoNew York reports first measles-related death in more than 30 years Washington state resident dies from bird flu as another case is confirmed All 9 victims identified in Florida business jet crash NTSB find signs of midair breakup in…
  • All 9 victims identified in Florida business jet crashBNO News · 7 days agoNew York reports first measles-related death in more than 30 years Washington state resident dies from bird flu as another case is confirmed All 9 victims identified in Florida business jet crash NTSB find signs of midair breakup in…
  • Washington state resident dies from bird flu as another case is confirmedBNO News · 7 days agoNew York reports first measles-related death in more than 30 years Washington state resident dies from bird flu as another case is confirmed All 9 victims identified in Florida business jet crash NTSB find signs of midair breakup in…
  • Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy hospitalized after strokeBNO News · 8 days ago9 killed as business jet crashes onto road near West Palm Beach, Florida Ukraine alert app sends false radiation and chemical warnings in suspected hack Death toll rises to 69 in Spain high-speed train collision 4 killed, 11 injured in…

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 13
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 3
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 3
  • Marco Rubio16%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
  • Chris Wright14%▼ 1
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%
  • Tom Homan11%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee11%▼ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 2
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz9%▼ 9
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 3

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions