Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 9, 8 PM ETMohammed bin Salman: 83% → 90%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Nov 4, 11 PM ETMohammed bin Salman: 79% → 87%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 21, 8 PM ETMohammed bin Salman: 74% → 62%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
✓ Giorgia Meloni
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$18.7K
✓ Delcy Rodríguez
>99%
▲ 3
100¢
100¢
$48.5K
✓ Volodymyr Zelenskyy
>99%
▲ 2
100¢
100¢
$39.8K
✓ Xi Jinping
>99%
100¢
100¢
$158K
✓ Keir Starmer
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$20.6K
✓ Lula da Silva
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$7.8K
✓ Javier Milei
>99%
▲ 6
100¢
100¢
$7.2K
✓ Abdel Fattah El-Sisi
>99%
▲ 2
100¢
100¢
$13.7K
✓ Ahmed al-Sharaa
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$25.3K
✓ Friedrich Merz
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$14.1K
✓ Maria Corina Machado
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$10.1K
Mohammed bin Salman
90%
▲ 6
89¢
91¢
$1.10
$44.1K
Vladimir Putin
90%
▲ 2
89¢
90¢
$1.11
$201K
King Mohammed VI
8%
7¢
9¢
$11.11
$9.3K
Kim Jong Un
7%
5¢
8¢
$12.82
$316K
Aleksandr Lukashenko
5%
5¢
6¢
$16.95
$43.1K
Changpeng Zhao
4%
▼ 1
3¢
5¢
$22.22
$55.5K
iShowSpeed
3%
2¢
4¢
$25.00
$33.5K
MrBeast
3%
3¢
3¢
$31.25
$17.8K
Lai Ching-te
3%
3¢
3¢
$35.71
$42.8K
Jair Bolsonaro
2%
1¢
3¢
$35.71
$82.6K
Nick Fuentes
2%
1¢
3¢
$38.46
$97.1K
Pope Leo XIV
2%
1¢
3¢
$38.46
$39.1K
Nicolás Maduro
2%
1¢
3¢
$32.26
$15.6K
Yoon Suk Yeol
2%
1¢
3¢
$37.04
$105K
Ali Khamenei
<1%
0¢
$14.5K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Vladimir Putin Accuses Hockey Organizations Of Committing 'Gross Violation'Yahoo Sports · 4 days agoIn the four years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian athletes have been either disallowed from competing under the Russian flag or disallowed from competing altogether in sports leagues across the world. After his country was…
King Mohammed VI sets priorities for post-MINURSO phaseMEO · 5 days agoAccording to a statement from the Royal Palace, the meeting addressed the Kingdom’s priorities for the coming phase, foremost among them preserving its territorial integrity, unity and national security, ensuring stability in the southern…
King Mohammed VI sets priorities for the phase after MINURSOMEO · 5 days agoAccording to a statement from the Royal Palace, the meeting addressed the Kingdom’s priorities for the coming phase, foremost among them preserving its territorial integrity, unity and national security, ensuring stability in the southern…
King Mohammed VI Orders Security Measures in Western Sahara After MINURSO EndsNewsCord · 5 days agoPublished 4 Nov 2026, 23:29 UTC King Mohammed VI orders steps to ensure security in Western Sahara after MINURSO ends Rabat meeting followed up on post-MINURSO arrangements and ceasefire commitments Stéphane Dujarric, the spokesman for UN…
King Mohammed VI sets Morocco’s priorities following the end of MINURSO’s mandate@yabiladi_fr · 5 days agoKing Mohammed VI chaired a working session at the Royal Palace in Rabat on Wednesday to discuss the next steps following the end of MINURSO’s mandate, which the UN Security Council did not renew at its October 30 meeting. In a statement…
Vladimir Putin invites African countries to join modern international payment systemsBusiness · 3 days agoDuring a tour of an exhibition showcasing advanced Russian solutions, the Russian president and African leaders were introduced to A7’s international payment capabilities. “Digital currencies are developing both in the United States and in…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions