European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
85%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps85%▲ 2
- Maintain current rate16%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%
2 more
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
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European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
Settled Maintain current rateA day before, traders gave it 98%.
The last odds before it closed
99%Maintain current rate
- ✓ Maintain current rate99%▲ 1
- Cut 1-25bps2%▲ 2
- Hike more than 25bps2%▲ 2
- Hike 1-25bps2%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps<1%
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 95% on Oct 20, 99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Maintain current rate | 99% | 20.8K | ||||
| ✗ Cut 1-25bps | 2% | 15.4K | ||||
| ✗ Hike more than 25bps | 2% | 1.7K | ||||
| ✗ Hike 1-25bps | 2% | 27.5K | ||||
| ✗ Cut more than 25bps | <1% | 6.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: European Central Bank
Search ›- Ready for French test?: 5 questions for European Central BankThe European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday against a backdrop of upheaval in France and an Iran war that is keeping energy prices above $100, meaning inflation risks remain elevated. "How do you set rates against that backdrop?…
- DAX Index Analysis: Germany’s Benchmark Hovers Just Below the 25,700 HurdleEuropean Central Bank for clues on rates, with euro-area inflation recently reported near 3.8%. Our DAX index outlook set the stage; now let’s study the chart. DAX daily chart: 5-day and 20-day averages, resistance at 25,707 and 26,570…
- October ECB cheat sheet: French malaise shouldn’t prompt a dovish turnMarkets will scan the European Central Bank announcement on 29 October for any signs that French bond turmoil has triggered a dovish rethink. We don’t think it has, and expect the ECB to leave the door open for a December hike, which…
- US Fed Meeting LIVE: Expectations, time, where to watch Kevin Warsh's speech? How rate decision may impact gold, marketsThe Fed's policy announcement will be followed by interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan later this week, keeping global markets focused on the direction of monetary policy. US Fed meeting date and…
- Dollar firms ahead of central bank meetings, steadier stocks stall safe haven playThe dollar nudged higher on the euro, yen and pound on Tuesday, as traders braced for a barrage of major central bank meetings that will shape the interest rate outlook, as well as key corporate earnings that could ripple through all…
- British Pound: Conditional resilience under policy scrutiny – DBS"GBP/USD faces a difficult balancing act today as the UK Autumn Budget and FOMC decision put fiscal credibility and monetary policy divergence under scrutiny." "The FOMC is widely expected to leave rates unchanged while keeping the door…
- Euro seems vulnerable near yearly low, Fed-ECB policy is under spotlightThe Euro (EUR) trades close to its yearly low of 1.1113 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair is under pressure as heightened concerns in French bond markets and rising oil…
- Eurozone bank lending environment showing first hints of tighteningThe ECB’s bank lending survey indicates weaker loan demand due to higher interest rates While September's bank lending growth data was broadly unchanged from August, the European Central Bank's latest bank lending survey indicates weaker…
- Federal Reserve likely to skip rate hike despite elevated inflationThe Fed’s latest policy meeting concludes less than a week before the midterm elections, which have focused heavily on concerns about the cost of living and affordability. Consumers have generally soured on an economy weighed down by more…
- Euro steadies near 17-month lows ahead of Fed rate verdictEUR/USD trades with a positive bias during American trading hours on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) pauses its advance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, due at 18:00 GMT. At the time of writing, the pair…
- Global stocks get AI boost ahead of packed 48 hoursA woman walks past an electronic screen displaying stock quotation board in Tokyo, Japan April 15, 2025. REUTERS/Issei Kato LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Global stocks rose on Wednesday, boosted by renewed enthusiasm over AI ahead of earnings…
- Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Nears $81,000 as Tech Rally Lifts Crypto Before Fed DecisionBitcoin rose on Wednesday as a rally in technology and chipmaking stocks lifted risk appetite ahead of a Federal Reserve rate decision. The world’s largest crypto gained 1.2% to $80,948 by 01:27 ET, according to Investing.com. It had…
Related markets
All central banks ›Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
>99%chance▲ 53
Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
89%No Change
- No Change89%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease7%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
2 more
- 25 bps increase1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
68%No Change
- No Change68%▼ 6
- 25 bps increase30%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 11
- No change21%▼ 13
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 1
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions