ECB Interest Rates in Dec 2026
83%Hike <=25bps
- Hike <=25bps83%
- 0bps (Unchanged)14%
- Hike >25bps3%
- Cut >25bps2%
1 more
- Cut <=25bps2%
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European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
The odds
85%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps85%▲ 2
- Maintain current rate16%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 1-25bps: 79% on Oct 20, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 85% | ▲ 2 | 85¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 7.4K |
| Maintain current rate | 16% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 3.3K |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 235 | ||
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 236 | ||
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 546 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)Hike 25 bpKalshi 85%Crypto.com 83%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on ForecastEx
- European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)Hike 50+ bpKalshi 85%ForecastEx <1%85 pts apart
ECB Decision (Dec 17, 2026)
<1%Hike 50+ bp
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
- Hike 25 bp<1%
- Hold<1%
- Cut 25 bp<1%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: European Central Bank
Search ›- European Central Bank: Leadership changes go beyond hawks and doves - Standard Chartered"Christine Lagarde’s announcement that she will step down as European Central Bank (ECB) president nine months ahead of schedule has accelerated what was already shaping up to be a major reshuffle of the Executive Board." "Our marginal…
- An opportunity to stocktake and strengthen the governance and policies of the European Central BankImminent ECB Executive Board turnover is a chance to prioritise expertise in appointments, restore staggered terms and rethink policy communication Reading time: 28 minutes The European Central Bank faces substantial change in its…
- H.M. Queen Máxima of the Netherlands and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to Speak at EMERGE EuropeEMERGE Europe marks the Financial Health Network's first European convening and will bring more than 200 senior leaders from financial services, fintech, policy, and research UNSGSA Queen Máxima and President Lagarde will be joined by…
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde resignsLagarde, 70, will leave Feb. 7, the ECB said Thursday. Her eight-year term was to end Oct. 31, 2027. Asked about her reasons at a news conference following the bank’s decision to leave rates unchanged, she said that she wanted to be freed…
- President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde to step downEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will step down on Feb. 7 next year, she announced Thursday, formally kicking off a succession race that will be shaped by political bargaining and Franceâs looming fiscal crisis…
- European Central Bank keeps key interest rate on hold at 2.5%The European Central Bank voted to hold interest rates steady on Thursday, meeting market expectations, despite euro zone inflation rising to a three-year high.
- European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde to step downSpeculation had been growing that Lagarde would leave the bank to lead the World Economic Forum. The European Central Bank announced on Wednesday that President Christine Lagarde will step down from the job in February, eight months before…
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to step down in FebruaryCNBC's Becky Quick reports on the latest news. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde to step down in February
- European Central Bank: December hike still base case – UOBUOB economist Lee Sue Ann notes that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept key rates unchanged in October but delivered a hawkish message. UOB economist Lee Sue Ann notes that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept key rates unchanged in…
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will resign in February, nine months earlyEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will resign Feb. 7, nine months ahead of the end of her 8-year term, the ECB said Thursday. The resignation opens the way for European leaders to choose a successor for the ECB president…
- European Central Bank: December hike then possible pause – RabobankRabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen reports that President Lagarde acknowledged inflation will remain well above target and that the European Central Bank (ECB) discussed a rate hike but left policy unchanged. Rabobank's…
- As energy prices threaten inflation again, Lagarde’s European Central Bank legacy offers lessonsThe ECB has just warned that rising energy prices pose a renewed risk to price stability. Lagarde’s own record on managing inflation, however, is more mixed. In late 2021 and early 2022, the ECB under Lagarde misdiagnosed the nature of…
Related markets
All central banks ›Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
>99%chance▲ 53
Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
89%No Change
- No Change89%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease7%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
2 more
- 25 bps increase1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
68%No Change
- No Change68%▼ 6
- 25 bps increase30%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 11
- No change21%▼ 13
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 1
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
- No change82%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions