Bank of Mexico rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 17 · $54 today · $5.2K traded · $2.5K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

85%Maintain current rate

Maintain current rate85%▼ 6
Cut 25bps13%▲ 6
Cut more than 50bps2%
Cut 50bps2%
Hike 50bps2%
Hike more than 50bps2%
Hike 25bps1%

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 83% on Oct 19, 85% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 9, 7 PM ETMaintain current rate: 92% → 85%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Maintain current rate	85%	▼ 6	85¢	88¢	$1.14	4.5K
Cut 25bps	13%	▲ 6	12¢	16¢	$6.25	9.1K
Cut more than 50bps	2%			5¢	$20.00	75.00
Cut 50bps	2%			5¢	$20.00	103
Hike 50bps	2%			4¢	$25.00	246
Hike more than 50bps	2%			4¢	$25.00	133
Hike 25bps	1%			2¢	$50.00	594

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on ForecastEx

Bank of Mexico rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)Cut 25 bpKalshi 13%ForecastEx <1%13 pts apart

Bank of Mexico Decision (Dec 17, 2026)

<1%Hike 50+ bp

Hike 50+ bp<1%
Hike 25 bp<1%
Hold<1%
Cut 25 bp<1%

1 more

Cut 50+ bp<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Bank of Mexico

Search ›

Bank of Mexico Surprises and Cuts Interest Rate to 6.25%Mexico Solidarity Media · 3 days agoThis article by Braulio Carbajal originally appeared in the November 5, 2026 edition of La Jornada, Mexico’s premier left wing daily newspaper. Mexico City. The Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) decided by majority to lower by a…
Bank of Mexico Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate in Split Decision -- UpdateMarketScreener · 4 days agoPublished on 11/05/2026 at 05:29 pm EST MEXICO CITY--The Bank of Mexico lowered its benchmark interest rate in a split decision, saying it was a "one-time adjustment" and it expects to hold the rate steady for a prolonged period. The…
Mexico Investment Rises 5.7% on Public WorksThe Rio Times · 4 days agoMexico’s economy is building again, mostly with public money. Gross fixed investment, the spending on buildings, roads, machinery and vehicles, rose 5.7% in August 2026 from a year earlier. The statistics office INEGI (Mexico’s national…
Banxico unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points to 6.25%FXStreet · 4 days agoOn Thursday, the Bank of Mexico – known as Banxico for its Spanish acronym – cut rates by 25 basis points to 6.25%, in an unexpected move that caught market participants off guard, who had expected rates to remain unchanged at 6.50%. Last…
Gaucho Grill Fires Up Old Town Temecula's Historic Former Bank BuildingHoodline · 3 days agoA century-old bank building in Old Town Temecula has a new tenant, and it's serving skirt steak instead of savings accounts. Gaucho Grill, the Argentine steakhouse chain known for cooking meat over open-flame, wood-fired parrilla grills…
Mexican Peso reels as Banxico's surprise rate cut fuels easing betsFXStreet · 4 days agoThe Mexican Peso depreciates against the US Dollar after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) unexpectedly cut interest rates in what it called a “one-time adjustment.” The USD/MXN trades at 19.74, yet it touched a daily low of 18.96. On Thursday…
USD/MXN Forex Signal: Dollar Tests Key Support Ahead of NFPDailyForex · 4 days agoThe U.S. dollar has rallied slightly during the Thursday session, as we are looking at a pair that is heavily influenced by the U.S. side of the border. Employment numbers on Friday could lead the way. The U.S. dollar has initially pulled…
Mexico Rate Call Due, Election Chief SoughtThe Rio Times · 5 days agoMexico’s central bank announces its interest rate decision on 5 November, while the country’s election authority is still searching for a permanent chief. The Bank of Mexico, known as Banxico, announces its next interest rate decision on…
Mexican Peso climbs on Democratic sweep ahead of Banxico callFXStreet · 5 days agoThe Mexican Peso rallies against the US Dollar following the Democratic blue sweep in the US midterm elections, with Democrats set to control the US Senate and the House of Representatives starting in January 2027. Despite this, the lack…
Banxico survey sees 6.50% rates through 2027, Peso near 18.40FXStreet · 6 days agoOn Tuesday, the Bank of Mexico released its October private economists survey in which most analysts revised their inflation expectations upward and see the USD/MXN exchange rate finishing the year near the psychological 18.50 mark. The…
Nuevo León Congress Urges Probe of US$384MThe Rio Times · 6 days agoMEXICO · NUEVO LEÓN Lawmakers in Nuevo León have asked Mexico’s federal prosecutor and financial watchdogs to follow up an audit complaint about state money. No one has been charged, and Governor Samuel García denies any wrongdoing. Nuevo…
Mexican Peso tumbles as US midterm anxiety meets factory slowdownFXStreet · 6 days agoThe Mexican Peso (MXN) loses ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday amid ongoing developments in the US mid-term elections, with investors turning cautious as they await the results and the composition of the US Congress. The…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onBanco de México, Trading Economics

Trading closesDec 17, 2026 1:59 PM ET

Traded$5.2K (14,778 contracts)

Today$54

This week$3.9K

At stake$2.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at December Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions