Florida Governor: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $921 today · $29.5K traded · $15.7K at stake · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

97%Byron Donalds, 0-2%

Byron Donalds, 0-2%97%▲ 1
Byron Donalds, 2-4%<1%
Byron Donalds, 4-6%<1%
Byron Donalds, 6-8%<1%
Byron Donalds, 8-10%<1%
Byron Donalds, 10-12%<1%
Byron Donalds, 12-14%<1%
Byron Donalds, 14-16%<1%
Byron Donalds, ≥16%<1%

How the odds have moved

Byron Donalds, 0-2%: 10% on Oct 23, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Byron Donalds, 0-2%	97%	▲ 1	97¢	99¢	$1.01	29.1K
David Jolly, 0-2%	1%	▼ 16			$100.00	14.9K
David Jolly, 2-4%	1%	▼ 10			$100.00	7.7K
David Jolly, ≥4%	1%	▼ 12			$100.00	6.7K
Byron Donalds, 2-4%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	14.7K
Byron Donalds, 4-6%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	9.0K
Byron Donalds, 6-8%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	3.7K
Byron Donalds, 8-10%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	3.7K
Byron Donalds, 10-12%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	8.9K
Byron Donalds, 12-14%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	25.5K
Byron Donalds, 14-16%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	6.9K
Byron Donalds, ≥16%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	4.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Florida Governor

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Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds details historic win, future of the GOPFox News · 34 h agoFlorida Governor-elect Rep. Byron Donalds joins 'Sunday Morning Futures' to discuss his election victory and the road ahead for the GOP after midterm losses. Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds details historic win, future of the GOP…
Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds vows to lead on state affordabilityFox Business · 5 days agoFox Business Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds vows to lead on state affordability Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds pledges to show other states how to prioritize affordability while maintaining common-sense conservative policies…
Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds on his victory amid a blue waveCNN · 5 days agoCNN Florida governor-elect Byron Donalds on his victory amid a blue wave Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds told CNN’s Dana Bash that he is honored to be the first Black governor of his state. He agreed that it was a tough midterms for…
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis responds to reports he's preparing to run for president again in 2028TAG24 · 2 days agoTallahassee, Florida - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has responded after a report claimed he was preparing to run for president again in 2028. On Friday, The Washington Post reported that three anonymous sources close to DeSantis claimed…
Florida Governor-elect says GOP must focus on lowering costs | CNN PoliticsCNN · 5 days agoWhile Republicans saw losses in the midterms, Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds told CNN’s Dana Bash that if the party focuses on affordability and prices, the “elections will take care of themselves.” New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani…
Florida governor readies to run for president in 2028 — WPTASS · 3 days agoAccording to sources cited by the newspaper, Ron DeSantis has already approached at least one political consultant with a proposal to participate in his election campaign - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto…
Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds wastes no time setting agendaCBS News · 5 days agoWe’re just weeks away from Byron Donalds becoming the next governor of Florida, and he’s wasting no time announcing his agenda as he addressed supports of the democrat he defeated, David Jolly. CBS News Miami’s Larry Seward has more…
RAW VIDEO: Florida Governor-Elect Byron Donalds press conferenceWKMG · 3 days agoWKMG RAW VIDEO: Florida Governor-Elect Byron Donalds press conference Following Republican candidate Byron Donalds’ victory for the Florida governor’s seat this week, many residents may be wondering: what does he plan to do now? Donalds is…
Judge blocks Florida governor from labelling Cair a terrorist organisationMiddle East Eye · 3 days agoA federal judge has decided that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis cannot unilaterally designate the largest Muslim-American civil rights organisation as a "terrorist" group because it infringes on First Amendment rights. The temporary…
Florida governor Ron DeSantis denies report on 2028 presidential runHindustan Times · 3 days agoFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has denied plans to run for president in 2028 after a report claimed he was preparing to seek the Republican nomination. The Washington Post reported on Friday night, citing three people briefed on his plans…
Ryan Tyson called the Florida Governor’s race on a napkin. The public polls were not as close@Fla_Pol · 2 days agoThe best polling in Florida is the polling the public never sees. Campaigns and committees pay for it, and it is usually right. The case in point this cycle is Ryan Tyson of The Tyson Group. On Election Day, Axios’ Marc Caputo told people…
Jolly, Donalds locked in close race for Florida governorFox News · 6 days agoFox News Jolly, Donalds locked in close race for Florida governor

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFlorida Division of Elections

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$29.5K (135,233 contracts)

Today$921

This week$9.6K

At stake$15.7K

In the news3 headlines today, 117 this week

Followed here sinceOct 23, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for Byron Donalds in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions