Kansas Senate: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $95 today · $8.6K traded · $6.3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

97%Adam Hamilton, 4-6%

Adam Hamilton, 4-6%97%
Adam Hamilton, 0-2%1%
Adam Hamilton, 6-8%1%
Adam Hamilton, ≥8%1%
Adam Hamilton, 2-4%1%

How the odds have moved

Adam Hamilton, 4-6%: 7% on Oct 23, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 3, 11 PM ETAdam Hamilton, 4-6%: 10% → 78%
- Kansas Senate race is unexpectedly competitiveNBC News · 6 days ago
- Adam Hamilton flips Kansas Senate seat blue for first time in 94 years | CNN PoliticsCNN · 6 days ago
- Election 2026 Kansas SenategoSkagit · 6 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Adam Hamilton, 4-6%	97%		96¢	99¢	$1.01	7.9K
Roger Marshall, 2-4%	4%	▼ 5			$25.00	3.1K
Roger Marshall, 8-10%	2%	▲ 1			$50.00	2.0K
Roger Marshall, 0-2%	1%	▼ 18			$100.00	15.2K
Roger Marshall, 4-6%	1%	▼ 3			$100.00	1.6K
Roger Marshall, 6-8%	1%	▼ 2			$100.00	4.3K
Roger Marshall, ≥10%	1%	▲ 1			$100.00	4.8K
Adam Hamilton, 0-2%	1%			2¢	$50.00	22.8K
Adam Hamilton, 6-8%	1%			2¢	$50.00	8.5K
Adam Hamilton, ≥8%	1%			2¢	$50.00	15.3K
Adam Hamilton, 2-4%	1%			1¢	$100.00	9.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Kansas Senate

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The Kansas Senate Race Is Tight – So Trump Is Diving Right Intownhall.com · 3 days agoPresident Donald Trump will head to Wichita, Kansas, on Monday as a key United States Senate race tightens. The race between Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Democrat Adam Hamilton is rated a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report as…
Democrat Adam Hamilton pulls off upset in Kansas Senate race@nc5 · 4 days agoNews Channel 5 Nashville Democrat Adam Hamilton pulls off upset in Kansas Senate race
Adam Hamilton will flip deep-red Kansas Senate seat, ending a 94-year Democratic droughtCNN · 6 days agoCNN Adam Hamilton will flip deep-red Kansas Senate seat, ending a 94-year Democratic drought Democrat Adam Hamilton will flip the Kansas Senate seat, ending a 94-year Democratic drought, CNN projects. It's a seismic defeat of Republican…
Kansas Senate race is unexpectedly competitiveNBC News · 6 days agoNBC News BREAKING: Former Gov. Roy Cooper wins North Carolina’s Senate race, flipping the seat for Democrats
Election 2026 Kansas SenatePost Register · 5 days agoPost Register - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton arrives on stage at a watch party after winning his election, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Overland Park…
Kansas Senate race does big business on prediction marketsYahoo News · 5 days agoBetween Kalshi and Polymarket, the Kansas Senate race Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton brought in $19.2 million. Democrats will hold Congress but President Donald Trump still has the power to block their plans. Families described the…
Adam Hamilton flips Kansas Senate seat blue for first time in 94 years | CNN PoliticsCNN · 6 days agoDemocrat Adam Hamilton’s Senate win represents a seismic defeat of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in a deep-red state, where Democrats make up just a quarter of voters. Hamilton says economic pain and anger in Washington helped drive his…
Adam Hamilton to Remain Senior Pastor after Historic Kansas Senate VictoryCrosswalk · 4 days agoKansas megachurch Pastor Adam Hamilton says he will continue serving as lead pastor of his church despite being elected as the first elected to the U.S. Senate to represent Kansas in nearly a century. A representative of Church of the…
History made in Kansas Senate raceCentral Oregon Daily · 5 days agoDemocrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor who founded and leads the countryâs largest United Methodist congregation, is projected to have won a U.S. Senate seat that Republicans had held for nearly a century. âââ Subscribe to ABC News on…
Kalshi projects Adam Hamilton wins Kansas Senate raceKalshi News · 6 days agoThe Democrat climbed from 17% in early September to overtake Marshall on Kalshi in the final week, reaching 72% on Election Day. Kalshi projects Adam Hamilton (D) will win the 2026 Kansas Senate race, defeating Roger Marshall (R). Traders…
Democrats Flip Kansas Senate Seat in Farm State Rebuke to Trump@BLaw · 6 days agoBloomberg Tax Adam Hamilton flipped a US Senate seat in Kansas, capitalizing on anger over President Donald Trump’s tariffs and high fuel prices generated by the Iran war to become the first Democrat since 1932 to be elected to the chamber…
Hamilton makes history, defeats Marshall in Kansas Senate upsetNewstalk KZRG · 6 days agoDemocrat Adam Hamilton has defeated Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall in a historic Kansas Senate race. He becomes the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Kansas since 1932. Hamilton, a 61-year-old Methodist pastor and…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onKansas Secretary of State

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$8.6K (94,911 contracts)

Today$95

This week$1.5K

At stake$6.3K

In the news1 headlines today, 49 this week

Followed here sinceOct 23, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for Roger Marshall in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions