Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 4, 11 PM ETAbdul El-Sayed, 6-8%: 17% → 87%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Abdul El-Sayed, 6-8%
94%
▼ 1
92¢
96¢
$1.04
38.6K
Abdul El-Sayed, 4-6%
2%
▲ 1
3¢
$33.33
43.6K
Abdul El-Sayed, 8-10%
2%
3¢
$33.33
25.2K
Mike Rogers, 0-2%
1%
▼ 13
$100.00
29.5K
Mike Rogers, 2-4%
1%
▼ 5
$100.00
14.3K
Mike Rogers, 4-6%
1%
▼ 1
$100.00
20.2K
Mike Rogers, ≥6%
1%
▼ 2
$100.00
17.3K
Abdul El-Sayed, 0-2%
1%
1¢
$100.00
25.5K
Abdul El-Sayed, 2-4%
1%
1¢
$100.00
27.8K
Abdul El-Sayed, ≥10%
1%
1¢
$100.00
38.0K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Abdul El-Sayed Clinches Win in Michigan Senate Race: 'The Bad Guys Lost'Yahoo News · 22 h agoSigns of life have emerged from the oft-discouraging landscape of American politics. For one, Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, has defeated Mike Rogers, a Trump-endorsed Republican, in Michigan. Per the latest Associated Press numbers as of…
Sens. Darrin Quiroz Camilleri, Roger Hauck selected to lead Michigan SenateCBS News · 4 days agoNovember 5, 2026 / 4:57 PM EST / CBS Detroit Michigan Democrats on Thursday have elected their new majority leader as the party maintains control of the state Senate following Tuesday's midterm election. Camilleri, who was elected to the…
APTOPIX Election 2026 Michigan SenateBluefield Daily Telegraph · 4 days agoBluefield Daily Telegraph Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers greets people at an election eve event Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, in Rochester Hills, Mich. - What to know after Israel's election results give neither Netanyahu nor the…
Michigan Senate victory fuels discussion about Dems' futureFox News · 5 days agoFox News Michigan Senate victory fuels discussion about Dems' future Caroline Downey and Al Mottur join 'The Faulkner Focus' to discuss how Abdul El-Sayed's Senate victory in Michigan is boosting the progressive wing of the Democratic…
Abdul El-Sayed launches 'Habibi PAC' days after winning Michigan Senate raceThe Business Standard · 3 days agoMonday November 09, 2026 Abdul El-Sayed has launched a new political action committee called Habibi PAC just days after winning Michigan's US Senate race. The move signals his plans to support political allies and build influence within…
Mike Rogers says "we have a state to save" after loss in Michigan Senate raceCBS News · 5 days agoNovember 4, 2026 / 2:47 PM EST / CBS Detroit Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers released a statement Wednesday after his projected defeat in the Michigan Senate race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in one of the most contentious races of the…
New Michigan Senate majority leader promises actions to lower costsYahoo News · 3 days agoLANSING — Michigan's incoming Senate majority leader said Thursday, Nov. 5, that his caucus, empowered by an expanded Senate majority and a new Democratic state trifecta, plans to take swift legislative actions to try to reduce costs for…
Abdul El-Sayed launches Habibi PAC after Michigan Senate victoryfreerepublic.com · 3 days agoAbdul El-Sayed, who recently won the Democratic primary for the US Senate in Michigan, has launched a political action committee named Habibi PAC, marking an early move to expand his political influence and back other candidates within the…
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeats Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate raceNPR · 6 days agoNPR Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeats Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate race Democrat Abdul El-Sayed won the U.S. Senate election in Michigan. Longtime NPR political correspondent Don Gonyea talks about the results in his home state.
El-Sayed, Rogers remain tight in Michigan Senate raceFox News · 6 days agoFox News El-Sayed, Rogers remain tight in Michigan Senate race Fox News senior national correspondent Rich Edson has the latest on results rolling in from the Michigan Senate race between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican…
El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate seat, NBC News projectsNBC News · 6 days agoAbdul El-Sayed wins the Senate seat in Michigan, defeating Rep. Mike Rogers, NBC News projects. He becomes the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate. El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate seat, NBC News projects Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions