Minnesota Senate: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $49 today · $948 traded · $590 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

25%Peggy Flanagan, 10-12%

Peggy Flanagan, 10-12%25%
Peggy Flanagan, 8-10%18%
Peggy Flanagan, 12-14%2%
Peggy Flanagan, 6-8%1%
Peggy Flanagan, ≥14%1%
Peggy Flanagan, 0-2%1%
Peggy Flanagan, 2-4%1%
Peggy Flanagan, 4-6%1%

How the odds have moved

Peggy Flanagan, 10-12%: 10% on Oct 23, 25% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 4, 11 PM ETPeggy Flanagan, 10-12%: 10% → 70%
- Map: Minnesota Senate results by countyFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul · 5 days ago
- Braxton Seifert Wins Minnesota Senate District 15 RaceHoodline · 5 days ago
- Steve Green wins reelection in Minnesota Senate District 2Bemidji Pioneer · 5 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Peggy Flanagan, 10-12%	25%			95¢	$1.05	1.2K
Peggy Flanagan, 8-10%	18%			18¢	$5.56	1.8K
Michele Tafoya, 0-2%	6%	▲ 1			$16.67	2.1K
Peggy Flanagan, 12-14%	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	1.7K
Peggy Flanagan, 6-8%	1%			2¢	$50.00	3.7K
Peggy Flanagan, ≥14%	1%			2¢	$50.00	3.1K
Michele Tafoya, ≥2%	1%	▼ 2			$100.00	3.4K
Peggy Flanagan, 0-2%	1%			1¢	$100.00	1.9K
Peggy Flanagan, 2-4%	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.5K
Peggy Flanagan, 4-6%	1%			1¢	$100.00	2.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Minnesota Senate

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Steve Jacob to move chambers with win of Minnesota Senate District 20 seat@KTTCTV · 3 days agoALTURA, Minn. (KTTC) – Republican state Rep. Steve Jacob will move to the Minnesota Senate after winning Senate District 20 with 57% of the vote. Jacob defeated DFLer Jason Lohmann. The district covers parts of Dakota, Goodhue, Olmsted…
Rochester teacher Simon Glaser flips Minnesota Senate District 24 seat@KTTCTV · 3 days agoROCHESTER, Minn. (KTTC) – Simon Glaser, a Rochester Public Schools teacher and political newcomer, won Minnesota’s Senate District 24 seat, flipping it for the first time since 2010. Glaser, a member of the DFL, received 51% of the vote…
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan holds a Minnesota Senate seat for DemocratsNBC News · 6 days agoLt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Republican Michele Tafoya in the Minnesota Senate race, NBC News projects, keeping the seat in Democrats’ column. Flanagan will become the first Native American woman to be elected to the Senate. Democrat…
Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy on DFL wins, next stepsMPR News · 4 days agoMPR News Voters on Tuesday returned control of the Minnesota House and Senate to the DFL and kept the party in the governor’s office, giving Democrats a governing trifecta. MPR News host Nina Moini spoke with state Senate Majority Leader…
Seifert Wins Minnesota Senate District 15 Seat, Plans to Focus on Rural PrioritiesMarshall Radio · 4 days agoMARSHALL, Minn. — Republican Braxton Seifert is headed to the Minnesota Senate after defeating DFL candidate Andrea Boettger in the Senate District 15 race. Speaking with Marshall Radio on election night from a joint campaign headquarters…
Peggy Flanagan wins Minnesota Senate race over Michele TafoyaNew York Post · 6 days agoDemocrat Peggy Flanagan won Minnesota’s US Senate race Tuesday, defeating Republican Michele Tafoya in a closely watched midterm contest for the seat held by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, will become…
Steve Green wins reelection in Minnesota Senate District 2Bemidji Pioneer · 5 days agoRepublican incumbent Steve Green has retained his seat representing District 2 in the Minnesota Senate after beating out DFL challenger Dan Rogers in Tuesday's midterm election. Steve Green wins reelection in Minnesota Senate District 2…
Braxton Seifert Wins Minnesota Senate District 15 RaceHoodline · 5 days agoVoters in southwest Minnesota's Senate District 15 have elected Republican Braxton Seifert to his first term in the state Senate, according to unofficial results. Seifert, a Marshall bank loan officer and business owner, beat…
Kupec likely to request recount, but answers in tight Minnesota Senate race still weeks outInForum · 5 days agoMOORHEAD — An incumbent Minnesota state senator in a nearly tied race will likely request a recount, but more answers on the results are weeks away. Kupec and Peterson, who works as a real estate developer, had been campaigning for months…
Incumbent Grant Hauschild wins Minnesota Senate District 3 raceWDIO.com · 5 days agoState Senator Grant Hauschild won re-election in Minnesota Senate District 3, according to results from the Minnesota Secretary of State, beating out Republican challenger Andrea Zupancich. According to the unofficial results, Senator…
Republican Jason Rarick reelected to Minnesota SenateCloquet Pine Journal · 6 days agoCARLTON AND PINE COUNTIES — Jason Rarick, R-Pine City, appears to have been reelected to a third term in the Minnesota Senate. With 100 of 106 precincts reporting as of 12:30 a.m. Wednesday, Rarick was ahead with 55% of the vote. Rarick…
McEwen reelected to Minnesota Senate District 8 seatDuluth News Tribune · 6 days agoDULUTH — Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party incumbent Sen. Jen McEwen defeated Republican Darrick Law to win Minnesota Senate District 8, which includes most of Duluth. McEwen received 76% of the vote to Law's 23%, according to complete but…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onMinnesota Secretary of State

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$948 (24,697 contracts)

Today$49

At stake$590

In the news16 headlines today, 72 this week

Followed here sinceOct 23, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for Peggy Flanagan in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions