Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 7, 11 PM ETTroy Jackson, 4-6%: 86% → 13%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Nov 4, 11 PM ETTroy Jackson, 4-6%: 39% → 47%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Troy Jackson, 4-6%
77%
▼ 13
75¢
82¢
$1.22
16.1K
Troy Jackson, 6-8%
21%
▼ 4
18¢
25¢
$4.00
6.7K
Susan Collins, 2-4%
3%
▼ 2
$33.33
7.9K
Susan Collins, 0-2%
2%
▼ 7
$50.00
11.4K
Troy Jackson, 2-4%
1%
1¢
2¢
$50.00
19.9K
Susan Collins, 4-6%
1%
▼ 1
$100.00
4.2K
Susan Collins, 6-8%
1%
$100.00
9.2K
Susan Collins, ≥8%
1%
▼ 1
$100.00
7.1K
Troy Jackson, 0-2%
<1%
1¢
$100.00
11.9K
Troy Jackson, ≥8%
<1%
1¢
$100.00
6.2K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Susan Collins Concedes in Maine Senate raceNBC News · 6 days agoNBC News Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate seat, NBC News projects President Trump speaks to various media outlets reacting to midterm results Rep. Debbie Dingell: If Democrats don't deliver, voters will send another message in two years…
Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate seat, NBC News projectsNBC News · 6 days agoDemocrat Troy Jackson has defeated five-term incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the race for Senate in Maine, NBC News projects. NBC News' Steve Kornacki breaks down how the results in Bangor, Maine, benefited Jackson. El-Sayed…
Troy Jackson topples Republican Susan Collins in Maine Senate race | CNN PoliticsCNN · 6 days agoDemocrat Troy Jackson defeated five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, despite only becoming his party's nominee in July. House Speaker Mike Johnson alluded to the challenging political headwinds the party in power typically…
Maine Senate race could take days to decide under ranked-choice votingFox News · 6 days agoFox News national correspondent Bryan Llenas reports from Maine as Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson in a tight Senate race. Maine Senate race could take days to decide under ranked-choice voting Fox News national…
Lucien Daigle wins Maine Senate District 1 race@wagmnews · 5 days agoRepublican Lucien Daigle has won the race for Maine Senate District 1, defeating Democrat Vaughn McLaughlin in Tuesday’s general election, according to The Associated Press. Daigle, a Fort Kent resident and current member of the Maine…
Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate race over Susan Collins, in major coup for DemocratsNPR · 6 days agoTroy Jackson speaks at the Bangor Cross Insurance Center on July 24, 2026 in Bangor, Maine. Ashley L. Conti for NPR hide caption Midterms coverage: Live results | What to know | Stories around the countryStay connected: NPR Politics…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions