North Carolina Senate: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $55 today · $10.3K traded · $9.4K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

90%Roy Cooper, 18-20%

Roy Cooper, 18-20%90%
Roy Cooper, 20-22%5%▲ 1
Roy Cooper, 16-18%1%
Roy Cooper, ≥22%1%
Roy Cooper, 0-2%<1%
Roy Cooper, 2-4%<1%
Roy Cooper, 4-6%<1%
Roy Cooper, 6-8%<1%
Roy Cooper, 8-10%<1%
Roy Cooper, 10-12%<1%
Roy Cooper, 12-14%<1%
Roy Cooper, 14-16%<1%

How the odds have moved

Roy Cooper, 18-20%: 7% on Oct 23, 90% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 6, 6 PM ETRoy Cooper, 18-20%: 88% → 1%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Roy Cooper, 18-20%	90%		10¢	98¢	$1.02	10.0K
Roy Cooper, 20-22%	5%	▲ 1		10¢	$10.00	1.7K
Michael Whatley, 0-2%	1%				$100.00	3.2K
Michael Whatley, ≥2%	1%				$100.00	2.7K
Roy Cooper, 16-18%	1%			2¢	$50.00	4.0K
Roy Cooper, ≥22%	1%			2¢	$50.00	2.4K
Roy Cooper, 0-2%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	17.0K
Roy Cooper, 2-4%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	2.7K
Roy Cooper, 4-6%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	2.6K
Roy Cooper, 6-8%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	2.6K
Roy Cooper, 8-10%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	1.7K
Roy Cooper, 10-12%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	6.9K
Roy Cooper, 12-14%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	14.2K
Roy Cooper, 14-16%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	3.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: North Carolina Senate

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Democrat Roy Cooper celebrates flipping North Carolina Senate seatAl Jazeera · 6 days agoAl Jazeera Democrat Roy Cooper celebrates flipping North Carolina Senate seat Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper celebrated his Senate victory in Raleigh after defeating Republican Michael Whatley and flipping a Republican-held seat…
Democrat Roy Cooper will flip North Carolina Senate seatCNN · 6 days agoVideo: Democrat Roy Cooper will flip North Carolina Senate seat CNN Democrat Roy Cooper will flip North Carolina Senate seat Former Gov. Roy Cooper will win the Senate race in North Carolina, CNN projects, defeating Republican Michael…
Democrat Roy Cooper wins a North Carolina Senate seatNPR · 6 days agoMidterms coverage: Live results | What to know | Stories around the countryStay connected: NPR Politics Podcast | NPR Politics newsletter | NPR app The former governor becomes the first Democrat elected to the Senate from North Carolina…
Roy Cooper looks to flip North Carolina Senate seat by defeating Republican Michael WhatleyThe Washington Post · 7 days agoThe Washington Post North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race Tuesday is a clash of political trends Roy Cooper’s winning streak in North Carolina elections will be tested on Tuesday as the former Democratic governor faces off with President…
Democrat Roy Cooper flips key North Carolina Senate seat from RepublicansBBC News · 6 days agoDemocrat Roy Cooper has been projected to win a key Senate race in North Carolina, flipping a crucial seat previously held by Republican Thom Tillis, the BBC's news partner CBS reports. Cooper is projected to beat Republican opponent…
Dem Roy Cooper flips North Carolina Senate seat, beats Trump pick Michael WhatleyNew York Post · 6 days agoDemocratic former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper won the US Senate race over Trump-backed GOP candidate Michael Whatley in a major pickup for Democrats. Cooper, 69 and a former two-term governor, will succeed GOP Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) in…
Roy Cooper wins North Carolina Senate election, flipping seat for Democrats, CBS News projectsCBS News · 6 days agoCBS News Boston: Voters Decide CBS News Chicago: Voters Decide CBS News Colorado: Voters Decide CBS News Detroit: Voters Decide CBS News Miami: Voters Decide CBS News New York: Voters Decide CBS News Philadelphia: Voters Decide CBS News…
APTOPIX Election 2026 North Carolina SenateColumbia Missourian · 6 days agoColumbia Missourian North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper speaks at an election night event Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Raleigh, N.C. - To view our latest e-Edition click the image on the left. The Pulse of I-70 A visual…
Democrat Roy Cooper Flips North Carolina Senate SeatYahoo Finance · 6 days agoYahoo Finance Singapore Singapore markets close in 2h 46m Democrat Roy Cooper Flips North Carolina Senate Seat Roy Cooper, a popular former two-term governor, beat Republican Michael Whatley to flip North Carolina's Senate seat from GOP…
Democrat Roy Cooper wins North Carolina Senate raceScripps News · 6 days agoDemocrat Roy Cooper is the projected winner of North Carolina's U.S. Senate race, defeating Republican Michael Whatley, according to The Associated Press. (Scripps News) Democrat Roy Cooper wins North Carolina Senate race
Kalshi projects Roy Cooper wins North Carolina Senate aceKalshi News · 6 days agoThe Democrat was favored on Kalshi from January on, trading above 97% in the final days. Kalshi projects Roy Cooper (D) will win the 2026 North Carolina Senate race, defeating Michael Whatley (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Cooper's chances…
Preliminary results show Jessica Bichler as winner of North Carolina Senate District 7WWAYTV3 · 6 days agoJessica Bichler is leading incumbent Michael Lee in the North Carolina Senate District 7 race, according to unofficial results from the Nov. 3, 2026, general election. WILMINGTON, NC (WWAY) â Jessica Bichler is leading incumbent Michael…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNorth Carolina State Board of Elections

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$10.3K (75,064 contracts)

Today$55

This week$7.1K

At stake$9.4K

Followed here sinceOct 23, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for Roy Cooper in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions