Texas Senate: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $1.7K today · $191K traded · $153K at stake · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

99%James Talarico, ≥8%

James Talarico, ≥8%99%
James Talarico, 0-2%<1%
James Talarico, 2-4%<1%
James Talarico, 4-6%<1%
James Talarico, 6-8%<1%

How the odds have moved

James Talarico, ≥8%: 10% on Oct 23, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
James Talarico, ≥8%	99%		99¢		$1.01	185.4K
Ken Paxton, 0-2%	1%	▼ 13			$100.00	90.1K
Ken Paxton, 2-4%	1%	▼ 6			$100.00	67.9K
Ken Paxton, 4-6%	1%	▼ 1			$100.00	63.9K
Ken Paxton, 6-8%	1%	▼ 1			$100.00	51.7K
Ken Paxton, ≥8%	1%	▼ 2			$100.00	58.9K
James Talarico, 0-2%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	121.3K
James Talarico, 2-4%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	115.1K
James Talarico, 4-6%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	101.2K
James Talarico, 6-8%	<1%			1¢	$100.00	101.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Texas Senate

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Talarico wins Texas Senate seat, NBC News projectsNBC News · 6 days agoNBC News El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate seat, NBC News projects Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate seat, NBC News projects President Trump speaks to various media outlets reacting to midterm results Rep. Debbie Dingell: If Democrats don't…
Democrat James Talarico wins Texas Senate seatNPR · 6 days agoTexas Senate candidate James Talarico addresses supporters on primary election night in Austin, Texas. Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images hide caption Midterms coverage: Live results | What to know | Stories around the countryStay connected…
Full speech: James Talarico projected winner in Texas Senate raceNBC News · 6 days agoNBC News Texas Governor Greg Abbott concedes his reelection bid Troy Jackson wins Maine Senate seat, NBC News projects President Trump speaks to various media outlets reacting to midterm results Full speech: James Talarico projected winner…
James Talarico wins Texas Senate seat: "We just took back Texas"CBS News · 6 days agoCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. James Talarico wins Texas…
Analyzing Alaska, Texas Senate racesCBS News · 6 days agoAlaska's Senate race garnered attention with Democrat Mary Peltola and two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. In typically red Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces off against Democrat James Talarico. CBS News' Fin Gómez has more. Analyzing…
James Talarico calls for unity in victory speech after winning Texas Senate raceFox News · 6 days agoFox News James Talarico calls for unity in victory speech after winning Texas Senate race Democrat James Talarico delivers a victory speech calling for unity after winning Texas' U.S. Senate race. The newly elected senator pledges to…
Former Rep. Kevin Brady on midterms, Texas Senate raceCNBC · 6 days agoCNBC Former Rep. Kevin Brady on midterms, Texas Senate race
Cheers erupt at Talarico headquarters as he is projected to win Texas Senate raceCNN · 6 days agoCNN Cheers erupt at Talarico headquarters as he is projected to win Texas Senate race Supporters at James Talarico’s campaign headquarters in Austin, Texas, roared and cheered as they watched CNN project the Democratic Senate nominee as…
James Talarico on flipping Texas Senate seat in race against Ken PaxtonCBS News · 5 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. James Talarico on…
James Talarico upsets Ken Paxton in Texas Senate raceNewsweek · 6 days agoNov 03, 2026 at 11:01 PM EST Nov 03, 2026 at 11:13 PM EST James Talarico, a former teacher who built a national profile as an outspoken progressive Christian, is headed to the U.S. Senate after defeating Republican Attorney General Ken…
CNN Projection: Talarico Will Win Texas Senate Race - Laura Coates Live - Podcast on CNN PodcastsCNN · 6 days agoCNN Laura Coates sparks unique conversations and covers the most interesting stories of the day through a news, legal and pop culture lens. Back to episodes list Continuing Midterm Election coverage with Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper.
Trump's gamble on Ken Paxton backfires as Democrat pulls off historic Texas Senate upsetFox News · 6 days agoDemocrats just made history in Texas. President Donald Trump’s gamble on Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a strong ally of the president’s, backfired on him after Texas state Rep. James Talarico pulled off an upset to score Democrats…

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86%Jon Ossoff, 18-20%

Jon Ossoff, 18-20%86%
Jon Ossoff, 16-18%8%▲ 4
Jon Ossoff, ≥20%2%▲ 1

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Jon Ossoff, 0-2%1%
Jon Ossoff, 2-4%<1%
Jon Ossoff, 4-6%<1%
Jon Ossoff, 6-8%<1%
Jon Ossoff, 8-10%<1%
Jon Ossoff, 10-12%<1%
Jon Ossoff, 12-14%<1%
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Iowa Senate: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

82%Josh Turek, 4-6%

Josh Turek, 4-6%82%▲ 4
Josh Turek, 2-4%14%▼ 11
Josh Turek, 6-8%2%

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Josh Turek, 0-2%1%
Josh Turek, ≥8%1%

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Kansas Senate: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

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Adam Hamilton, 4-6%97%
Adam Hamilton, 0-2%1%
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Maine Senate: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

77%Troy Jackson, 4-6%

Troy Jackson, 4-6%77%▼ 14
Troy Jackson, 6-8%4%▼ 21
Troy Jackson, 2-4%2%

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Troy Jackson, 0-2%1%
Troy Jackson, ≥8%1%

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Michigan Senate: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

94%Abdul El-Sayed, 6-8%

Abdul El-Sayed, 6-8%94%▼ 1
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Abdul El-Sayed, 8-10%2%

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Abdul El-Sayed, 2-4%1%
Abdul El-Sayed, ≥10%1%

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Minnesota Senate: margin of victory (Nov 3, 2026)

25%Peggy Flanagan, 10-12%

Peggy Flanagan, 10-12%25%
Peggy Flanagan, 8-10%18%
Peggy Flanagan, 12-14%2%

5 more

Peggy Flanagan, 6-8%1%
Peggy Flanagan, ≥14%1%
Peggy Flanagan, 0-2%1%
Peggy Flanagan, 2-4%1%
Peggy Flanagan, 4-6%1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onTexas Secretary of State

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$191K (956,493 contracts)

Today$1.7K

This week$65.9K

At stake$153K

In the news1 headlines today, 210 this week

Followed here sinceOct 23, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions