2029 S&P 500 change × 2028 winner

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 Closes Dec 31, 2029 · prices read 11 h ago

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The odds

16%Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: 0% to 10%
  • Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: 0% to 10%16%
  • Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: 20% or above16%
  • Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: 10% to 20%16%
  • Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: -10% to 0%10%
  • Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: Below -10%8%
  • Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 0% to 10%8%
  • Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 10% to 20%7%
  • Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 20% or above7%
  • Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: Below -10%5%
  • Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: -10% to 0%5%

How the odds have moved

Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: 0% to: 16% on Nov 11, 16% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: 0% to 10% 16% 11¢ 21¢ $4.76
Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: 20% or above 16% 11¢ 21¢ $4.76
Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: 10% to 20% 16% 11¢ 20¢ $5.00
Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: -10% to 0% 10% 6¢ 15¢ $6.67
Party: Democratic, S&P 500 change: Below -10% 8% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 0% to 10% 8% 3¢ 13¢ $7.69
Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 10% to 20% 7% 3¢ 12¢ $8.33
Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 20% or above 7% 3¢ 12¢ $8.33
Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: Below -10% 5% 1¢ 10¢ $10.10
Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: -10% to 0% 5% 1¢ 10¢ $10.10

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: S&P 500, stocks

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  • I'm sure it's a coincidence that Lutnick's sons have $362 million in NvidiaWashington Examiner · 16 h agoAmid Jensen Huang‘s confession that he had an extramarital affair with a woman accused of being a Chinese spy, the Nvidia CEO has resigned from the $5 trillion semiconductor giant. The stock price, which drove 15% of the S&P 500’s growth…
  • No, most of Trump's $3 billion gains aren't from stocksDallas News · 4 days agoIn President Donald Trump’s post-midterm election interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes” Nov. 8, correspondent Ross Douthat pressed him about his massive net worth gains while president. “There’s a Forbes story that said that your net worth…
  • Ocean Harvesters and Omega Protein Condemn Attacks on Commissioners and Fishing Families After Menhaden VoteCorsicana Daily Sun · 33 h agoAP Ocean Harvesters and Omega Protein Condemn Attacks on Commissioners and Fishing Families After Menhaden Vote ACCESS Newswire Nov 11, 2026 49 mins ago Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... Companies thank commissioners for their…
  • AP News in Brief at 11:04 p.m. ESTThe Courier · 34 h agoAP AP News in Brief at 11:04 p.m. EST AP Nov 11, 2026 Nov 11, 2026 Updated 45 mins ago Comments Mississippi elects Democrat Scott Colom as state's first Black US senator since Reconstruction JACKSON, Miss. (AP) — Democratic nominee Scott…
  • The TR Daily Briefs: Thursday, November 12, 2026Tallahassee Reports · 25 h agoExclusiveMorning Briefs The TR Daily Briefs: Thursday, November 12, 2026 By Robert Stewart November 12, 2026 Tallahassee Reports Thursday, November 12, 2026 Weather: Today, mostly sunny with a high near 79. Tonight, mostly clear with a low…
  • White House official stands by tariffs despite rising CPI and midterm backlashSeeking Alpha · 2 days agoNov 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ETState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), QQQ, VOO, DIA, IWM, DJI, IVV, SPX, NDX, SP500, COMP:INDBy: Arundhati Sarkar, SA News Editor1 CommentJ Studios At the U.S. Chamber’s B20 summit in Washington, a senior…
  • The TR Daily Briefs: Wednesday, November 11, 2026Tallahassee Reports · 48 h agoExclusiveMorning Briefs The TR Daily Briefs: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 By Robert Stewart November 11, 2026 Tallahassee Reports Wednesday, November 11, 2026 Weather: Veterans Day, partly sunny, with a high near 77. Tonight, partly…
  • First Thing: Nvidia stocks tumble as CEO investigated over spy claimsthe Guardian · 4 days agoJensen Huang reportedly had close relationship ‌with Chinese businesswoman who passed information to ‌Beijing. Plus, tennis legend Billie Jean King tells all Good morning. Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, has been placed under…
  • AP News Summary at 11:36 a.m. ESTThe Courier · 3 days agoHegseth slams his potential impeachment as a 'political spectacle’ that undermines US troops Hegseth slams his potential impeachment as a 'political spectacle’ that undermines US troops Javascript is required for you to be able to read…
  • AP Trending SummaryBrief at 11:10 a.m. ESTThe Courier · 3 days agoAt least 12 people killed and dozens hurt in crashes on a foggy Bulgarian motorway, minister says At least 12 people killed and dozens hurt in crashes on a foggy Bulgarian motorway, minister says Javascript is required for you to be able…
  • AP Trending SummaryBrief at 11:25 a.m. ESTThe Courier · 3 days agoAt least 12 people killed and dozens hurt in crashes on a foggy Bulgarian motorway, minister says At least 12 people killed and dozens hurt in crashes on a foggy Bulgarian motorway, minister says Javascript is required for you to be able…
  • Work of preparing for the next legislative session continuesThe Courier · 3 days agoBy REP. MATT DUFFIELD Nov 10, 2026 Nov 10, 2026 Updated Nov 10, 2026 Comments Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders presented her balanced budget proposal to legislators, outlining her administration’s funding recommendations for the coming…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions