Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)

Polymarket Elections › President 2028 Result pending · $153K today · $1M traded · $196K at stake · prices read just now

Embed

The odds

44.0median

39.548.5

Median 44.0Middle half 43.8 – 44.3

How the odds have moved

Median: 44.0 on Nov 5, 44.0 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
≤40	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$18.5K
41	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$14.5K
42	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$21.4K
43	1%	▼ 4		1¢	$100.00	$30.6K
44	97%		98¢	98¢	$1.02	$313K
45	2%	▲ 1	1¢	2¢	$50.00	$324K
46	<1%		0¢	1¢		$163K
47	<1%	▼ 14		0¢		$74.3K
48+	<1%	▼ 43		0¢		$41.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Republican Senate, Lower Brackets

Search ›

Not a pretty sight: Trump’s ‘beautiful’ Republican men flop at midtermsthe Guardian · 3 days agoPresident spent weeks praising his favored candidates’ physiques, from their jawlines to their shoulders – but most of his hot guys lost It was either a last-ditch considered strategy to win votes, or the ramblings of an increasingly…
Texas elected far-left leaders, but they can’t actually turn the state blueNew York Post · 3 days agoProgressives who swept Texas’ statewide offices Tuesday may have grand, far-left-leaning plans for their state, but they’ll have no picnic fulfilling their agenda. Democrats have long yearned for a gubernatorial candidate who could break…
Trump melts down over red state Senate race he insists his ally won ‘BY A LOT’Raw Story · 2 days agoPresident Donald Trump rolled out a fresh round of creative math on Truth Social to insist his pick has already won a key Senate race.In a post on Saturday, Trump claimed Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is "up by thousands of Votes" once ballots…
Alarm as Trump lashes out like ‘caged animal’ at lawmakers: ‘This will end poorly’Raw Story · 2 days agoUS President Donald Trump speaks during NASA's Max Power event at the Kennedy Space Center, in Merritt Island, Florida, US, November 6, 2026. REUTERS/Joe Skipper President Donald Trump's latest move against his political opponents…
DeSantis Says Amendment 3 Saved Florida From the Blue Wave — Sarasota Commissioner Warns of “Disastrous” Impact@2paragraphs · 2 days agoRepublican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis called the national election results “probably the political worst-case scenario for a midterm election” and said “Florida is the last main anchor standing.” On Saturday he wrote on X: “Had…
Maybe a blue Texas is just what the GOP neededThe Korea Times · 2 days agoTexas is far and away the biggest upset of the 2026 midterms. The resounding defeat of MAGA here also offers the Republican Party a chance for a hard reboot — if the GOP is brave enough to take it. Texas is the largest red state in the…
As Democrats gain power in Pa., some business leaders wonder about moderationThe Express · 3 days agoIn the next legislative session, Democrats in Pennsylvania will not necessarily have to compromise with Republicans to pass laws. On Tuesday, voters handed both chambers in the General Assembly and the governor's office to Democratic…
Trump will be blocked from putting ‘rightwinger’ on supreme court, Schumer saysthe Guardian · 3 days agoAfter midterm wins, Democratics plan comeback for when new Congress is sworn in, including pushback against Trump and his policies Donald Trump will be blocked from putting a “rightwinger” on the US supreme court, according to Chuck…
Republicans’ Senate comeback could get even hardersemafor.com · 5 days agoDemocrats could win still-uncalled races in Mississippi and Alaska. Senate Republicans are staring into the abyss It could be very difficult for them to reclaim the chamber in two years, especially if Democrats win still-uncalled races in…
Split-ticket voting emerges as key factor in South Carolina’s historic Senate raceWSOC TV · 3 days agoFORT MILL, S.C. — Democrat Annie Andrews won South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race on Tuesday, marking the first time the state has elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1998. Political experts say split-ticket voters played a decisive role…
Fact Check: Did Trump accuse Democrats of using ‘witchcraft and Satanism’ to win midterms?MEAWW News · 3 days agoWASHINGTON, DC: Following the massive Democratic victory in the midterm election, a rumor began circulating on social media platforms claiming that President Donald Trump accused the Democrats of using ‘witchcraft and Satanism’ to win the…
Minnesota 2020 Election ResultsMultiState Elections · 3 days agoMultiState 2020 results › Minnesota Another state… Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan…

Related markets

All president 2028 ›

Elections › President 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

27%Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff27%▲ 2
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
Gavin Newsom9%▼ 2

54 more

Pete Buttigieg6%
Kamala Harris5%▼ 1
Josh Shapiro5%
Andy Beshear4%
Raphael Warnock4%
Ro Khanna2%▼ 1
Wes Moore2%
Mark Kelly2%
James Talarico2%▼ 1
J.B. Pritzker2%
Abdul El-Sayed1%
Rahm Emanuel1%
Chelsea Clinton1%▲ 1
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Cory Booker1%
Roy Cooper1%
Michelle Obama<1%
Shawn Fain<1%
Ruben Gallego<1%
Jon Stewart<1%
Hillary Clinton<1%
Bernie Sanders<1%
Chris Murphy<1%
Chris Van Hollen<1%
Stephen A. Smith<1%
Mark Cuban<1%
Gina Raimondo<1%
Zohran Mamdani<1%
Jared Polis<1%
Barack Obama<1%
Phil Murphy<1%
Hunter Biden<1%
Jasmine Crockett<1%
Abigail Spanberger<1%
Hakeem Jeffries<1%
Elissa Slotkin<1%
Josh Stein<1%
Mitch Landrieu<1%
Tim Walz<1%
MrBeast<1%
Oprah Winfrey<1%
John Fetterman<1%
Liz Cheney<1%
LeBron James<1%
George Clooney<1%
Andrew Yang<1%
Beto O’Rourke<1%
Kim Kardashian<1%
Graham Platner<1%
Adam Schiff<1%
Alex Padilla<1%
Adam Hamilton<1%
Scott Colom<1%

Elections › President 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff19%▲ 2
JD Vance17%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%

55 more

Marco Rubio9%
Gavin Newsom8%
Ron DeSantis6%▼ 1
Kamala Harris3%▼ 1
Pete Buttigieg3%
Josh Shapiro3%
Andy Beshear2%
Thomas Massie2%
Tucker Carlson2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
Donald Trump1%
Raphael Warnock1%
James Talarico1%
Wes Moore1%
Mark Kelly1%
Ro Khanna1%
Abdul El-Sayed1%
JB Pritzker1%
Ivanka Trump1%
Ted Cruz1%
Glenn Youngkin<1%
Donald Trump Jr.<1%
Rahm Emanuel<1%
Gretchen Whitmer<1%
Nikki Haley<1%
Elon Musk<1%
Michelle Obama<1%
Jamie Dimon<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Tulsi Gabbard<1%
Zohran Mamdani<1%
Elissa Slotkin<1%
Stephen Smith<1%
Tim Walz<1%
Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
Greg Abbott<1%
LeBron James<1%
Kim Kardashian<1%
Eric Trump<1%
Pete Hegseth<1%
Jalen Brunson<1%
Abigail Spanberger<1%
Hakeem Jeffries<1%
Adam Schiff<1%
Josh Stein<1%
Alex Padilla<1%
Candace Owens<1%
Tim Scott<1%
Mike Johnson<1%
Doug Burgum<1%
John N. Kennedy<1%
Rick Scott<1%
James Fishback<1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%

Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

31%J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance31%▼ 1
Marco Rubio20%▼ 1
Ron DeSantis15%

40 more

Tucker Carlson4%
John McEntee4%
Ted Cruz3%
Thomas Massie3%
Glenn Youngkin2%
Brian Kemp2%
Donald Trump Jr.2%
Nikki Haley1%
Byron Donalds1%
Donald Trump1%
Ivanka Trump1%
Josh Hawley1%
Rand Paul1%
Joe Kent1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene1%
Tom Cotton1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
Tim Scott<1%
Rick Scott<1%
Elon Musk<1%
Katie Britt<1%
Candace Owens<1%
John N. Kennedy<1%
Pete Hegseth<1%
Tulsi Gabbard<1%
Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
Greg Abbott<1%
Elise Stefanik<1%
Kristi Noem<1%
Mike Pence<1%
Steve Bannon<1%
Kim Kardashian<1%
Eric Trump<1%
Doug Burgum<1%
Erika Kirk<1%
Matt Gaetz<1%
John Thune<1%
Tom Brady<1%
Mike Johnson<1%

Elections › President 2028

Blue wave in 2026?

>99%chance▲ 8

Elections › President 2028

AP calls the House by...?

>99%November 4, 11:59 PM

November 4, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 22
November 5, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 18
November 6, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 16

3 more

November 15, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 6
November 30, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 2
November 3, 11:59 PM<1%▼ 40

Elections › President 2028

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

94%Pete Buttigieg

Pete Buttigieg94%▲ 1
Andy Beshear92%▲ 1
J.B. Pritzker89%▼ 1

35 more

Rahm Emanuel88%▼ 1
Josh Shapiro88%▲ 3
Ro Khanna85%▼ 6
Gavin Newsom82%▼ 3
Cory Booker78%▼ 2
Mark Kelly76%
Wes Moore72%▼ 1
Jon Ossoff69%
Kamala Harris64%▲ 3
Chris Van Hollen63%▼ 11
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez61%▲ 7
Mitch Landrieu60%
Raphael Warnock57%▼ 4
Ruben Gallego55%▲ 7
Elissa Slotkin47%▼ 7
Gretchen Whitmer40%▲ 3
Jared Polis32%▼ 3
Chris Murphy27%▼ 2
Dean Phillips24%▲ 2
Phil Murphy24%▼ 4
Mikie Sherrill22%
Shawn Fain22%▼ 2
Roy Cooper19%▲ 7
Amy Klobuchar15%▼ 2
Mark Cuban12%▼ 6
James Talarico12%▼ 1
Stephen A. Smith11%▼ 2
Hunter Biden10%▼ 7
Abigail Spanberger10%▼ 7
Jon Stewart8%▲ 1
John Fetterman8%▼ 4
Michelle Obama7%
Tim Walz4%
Hillary Clinton4%
Barack Obama2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 6 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

MeasuredNov 6, 2026 4:15 AM ET

Listed endNov 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET · still trading until the result is in

Traded$1M

Today$153K

This week$1M

At stake$196K

In the news1 headlines today, 12 this week

Followed here sinceNov 4, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliatio

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions