Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman) (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › State & local Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $180 today · $78.7K traded · $50.3K at stake · prices read 29 min ago

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The odds

9.03%median

0%18%

Median 9.03%Middle half 8.49% – 9.58%

How the odds have moved

Median: 7.13% on Nov 4, 9.03% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Nithya Raman, ≥2%	99%		98¢		$1.01	23.0K
Nithya Raman, ≥4%	99%		98¢		$1.01	30.0K
Nithya Raman, ≥6%	99%		97¢		$1.02	13.2K
Nithya Raman, ≥8%	98%	▲ 2	96¢	99¢	$1.01	11.9K
Nithya Raman, ≥10%	6%	▼ 1	3¢	8¢	$12.50	19.5K
Nithya Raman, ≥12%	4%	▼ 1		7¢	$14.29	7.2K
Nithya Raman, ≥14%	1%			1¢	$100.00	12.5K
Nithya Raman, ≥16%	1%			3¢	$33.33	7.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Los Angeles, Nithya Raman

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Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral raceFox News · 4 days agoFox News Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race Fox News' Christina Coleman reports on Nithya Raman's victory in the Los Angeles mayoral race. Fox News' Christina Coleman reports on Democratic socialist Nithya…
Los Angeles elects Nithya Raman as socialist mayoral wave growsFox Business · 3 days agoDemocratic socialist mayors expand their reach across major American cities as Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral race. Joining Zohran Mamdani under socialist leadership, Raman highlights homelessness, housing…
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman will be Los Angeles' next mayorNPR · 4 days agoNPR Democratic socialist Nithya Raman will be Los Angeles' next mayor Democratic socialist Nithya Raman has been elected Los Angeles mayor, over incumbent Karen Bass. NPR does not offer or accept money for coverage or interviews. Become an…
Nithya Raman celebrates projected win in Los Angeles mayor's raceCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Nithya Raman…
Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race, NBC News projectsNBC News · 4 days agoNithya Raman will be the next mayor of Los Angeles after defeating incumbent Karen Bass. NBC News' Andres Gutierrez has more on next steps from Raman and other city officials as she makes the transition to her new role. Nithya Raman wins…
Nithya Raman elected as Los Angeles mayor, defeating incumbent Karen BassCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Nithya Raman…
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass to win Los Angeles mayoral race – videothe Guardian · 4 days agoThe Guardian Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass to win Los Angeles mayoral race – video Nithya Raman declared victory in the Los Angeles mayoral race after the incumbent, Karen Bass, conceded. Raman vowed to 'build…
Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayor's race, CBS News projectsCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Nithya Raman…
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayor’s raceNBC News · 4 days agoCity Council member Nithya Raman has defeated incumbent Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral race, NBC News projects, capping off a rapid political ascent for a progressive challenger who railed against the “broken status quo” in the…
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race over incumbent Karen Bassthe Guardian · 4 days agoMajor shake-up as LA councilmember, once considered long shot, ousts Democratic rival she had once endorsed Nithya Raman was elected to serve as the mayor of Los Angeles, eking out a narrow win over incumbent Karen Bass, in a major…
Who is Nithya Raman, the democratic socialist who will be Los Angeles’s next mayor?the Guardian · 4 days agoUrban planner and outsider who bested Karen Bass has close ties to Hollywood progressives – and a complicated relationship with the DSA Nithya Raman on Thursday unseated Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass after a neck-and-neck race for the…
Nithya Raman ousts incumbent Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayor's race, CBS News projectsCBS News · 4 days agoUpdated on: November 5, 2026 / 1:42 PM EST / CBS LA Councilmember Nithya Raman will be Los Angeles' next mayor after defeating incumbent Karen Bass in the November general election, CBS News projects. Raman's win comes after resounding…

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Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nov 3, 2026)

93%Nithya Raman, 8-10%

Nithya Raman, 8-10%93%▼ 3
Nithya Raman, 10-12%7%▼ 10
Nithya Raman, ≥18%1%

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Nithya Raman, 6-8%<1%
Nithya Raman, 12-14%<1%▼ 1
Nithya Raman, 14-16%<1%▼ 1
Nithya Raman, 16-18%<1%▼ 1

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onLos Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$78.7K (124,464 contracts)

Today$180

This week$57.6K

At stake$50.3K

In the news7 headlines today, 592 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions