Alaska Governor margin of victory

Kalshi Elections › Governors Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $60 today · $19.4K traded · $17.7K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

83%Democrats, 8+ pts
-120

How the odds have moved

Democrats, 2+ pts: 70% on Oct 19, 99% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETDemocrats, 2+ pts: 59% → 99%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Democrats, 2+ pts 99% ▲ 2 98¢ 100¢ 5.5K
Democrats, 5+ pts 85% ▼ 10 61¢ 99¢ $1.02 6.5K
Democrats, 8+ pts 83% ▼ 32 61¢ 95¢ $1.05 6.2K
Democrats, 11+ pts 83% 37¢ 98¢ $1.02 3.6K
Democrats, 14+ pts 83% 54¢ 86¢ $1.16 629
Democrats, 17+ pts 83% 61¢ 92¢ $1.09 878

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Alaska Governor

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  • Alaska Governor Gives Vote Count UpdatePolitical Wire · 30 h ago“Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) provided an update on the Last Frontier’s closely watched Senate race as vote counting continues in the state,” NewsNation reports. Said Dunleavy: “It’s very close.” “He said that there is a ‘big batch’ of…
  • Alaska Governor resultsAP News · 5 days agoLive results for the 2026 Alaska Governor general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178…
  • Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins reflects on lead in Alaska governor’s raceAlaska Public Media · 4 days agoLone Democratic candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins remains in the lead in the race for Alaska governor. The former state representative from Sitka spent election night in Downtown Anchorage, watching results roll in with a crowd of 350…
  • Alaska governor’s race heats up as Kreiss-Tomkins takes the leadYour Alaska Link · 5 days agoYour Alaska Link Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is leading Alaska’s governor’s race with 49% of the votes, followed by Bernadette Wilson with 29%. Kreiss-Tomkins celebrated with supporters in downtown Anchorage, expressing confidence in his…
  • Alaska governor candidates await results as vote count continues@AKNewsNow · 5 days agoANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) - Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Republican Bernadette Wilson each said they believe they will become Alaska’s 13th governor while results are still being counted. Both candidates have plans for their first…
  • Kalshi projects Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins wins Alaska governor raceKalshi News · 6 days agoThe Democrat led Kalshi's market after the August primary, trading near 88% in the final week. Kalshi projects Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) will win the 2026 Alaska governor race, defeating Bernadette Wilson (R). Traders on Kalshi priced…
  • Alaska Governor Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News · 7 days agoSome states and some individual counties provide results broken down by type of ballot cast, which can include Election Day votes, or those cast early, either in person or by mail. Whenever that ... Susan Collins' remarkable run as the…
  • Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads in Alaska governor’s raceAlaska Public Media · 6 days agoDemocrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative from Sitka, has a substantial lead in the race for governor. With 84% of precincts reporting, Kreiss-Tomkins leads with 49% of the vote. “We’re pretty pleased with the numbers…
  • Democrat Kreiss-Tomkins takes early lead in Alaska governor’s race as ballot counting beginsAnchorage Daily News · 6 days agoDemocrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is leading Alaska’s gubernatorial election with just over 65,000 ballots counted as of Tuesday evening. It’s a result that marks a rebuke of current Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican who has led the state…
  • JKT Team Predicts Outright Win in ElectionDaily Sitka Sentinel · 3 days agoDaily Sitka Sentinel JKT Team Predicts Outright Win in Election Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins' campaign is showing confidence that JKT and running-mate Zac Johnson are on track to win the Alaska governor's race outright. Please log in to…
  • Four candidates make final push in Alaska governor's race ahead of Election DayYour Alaska Link · 7 days agoFour candidates are competing for Alaska governor, with Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Republicans Dave Bronson, Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor making their cases to voters. While Alaska’s U.S. Senate race has drawn significant…
  • AROUND ALASKA: Skaters' Cabin, Pumpkin Recycling, and Wild Behavior!Your Alaska Link · 3 days agoYour Alaska Link Equipment is moving to the Cascade Point Ferry Terminal site, but construction remains unauthorized. Plus, Cordova gets a new Skaters’ Cabin design, Juneau offers free pumpkin composting, and Fairbanks foxes show off…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions