North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory
13%Smith, 1+ pts
-19
Install
California Governor margin of victory
The odds
31.4median
639
Median 31.4Middle half 30.6 – 32.2
How the odds have moved
Median: 22.8 on Oct 20, 31.4 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 9+ pts | >99% | 100¢ | 15.6K | |||
| Democrats, 12+ pts | >99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | 22.3K | ||
| Democrats, 15+ pts | >99% | 99¢ | 47.0K | |||
| Democrats, 18+ pts | 98% | 97¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 10.9K | |
| Democrats, 21+ pts | 98% | ▲ 2 | 97¢ | 99¢ | 16.2K | |
| Democrats, 24+ pts | 98% | ▼ 1 | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 8.7K |
| Democrats, 27+ pts | 97% | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 8.8K | |
| Democrats, 30+ pts | 95% | ▲ 18 | 64¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 3.7K |
| Democrats, 33+ pts | 1% | 3¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 1.3K | |
| Democrats, 36+ pts | 1% | 1¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California Governor
Search ›- California governor commutes death sentences for all 548 people on death rowCalifornia Governor Gavin Newsom has commuted the death sentences of all 548 people on death row in the state, changing them instead with life in prison. "We can now let these offenders die in obscurity while we forever remember and honour…
- Steve Hilton admits Trump unpopularity sank run for California governor, vows to keep fightingSteve Hilton said there is “no question” that anger at President Trump helped sink his campaign for California governor along with Republicans across the country — but the former Fox News host isn’t done fighting. Hilton said he would…
- Becerra prepares to take office as California governor, with budget challenges loomingNovember 4, 2026 / 6:30 PM PST / CBS Sacramento Democrat Xavier Becerra is now transitioning from campaign mode to governing mode after CBS News projected him the winner of California's gubernatorial race. Speaking to supporters in West…
- Xavier Becerra Declared Winner of California Governor’s RaceXavier Becerra has been declared the winner of the California governor’s race, easily swatting away a challenge from Republican Steve Hilton. Becerra, the Democrat, ran on a platform of lowering energy costs and working toward universal…
- Ex-UK political aide Steve Hilton loses bid for California governor to DemocratSteve Hilton, the former senior adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, has lost his bid for California governor to Democrat Xavier Becerra. Hilton, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump, faced an uphill battle as a…
- Democrat Xavier Becerra coasts to victory in California governor’s race after uninspiring campaignDemocrat Xavier Becerra went from an afterthought in the polls earlier this spring to California’s new governor on Tuesday, beating Republican Steve Hilton despite running a campaign offering little in inspiration for the state. Associated…
- Latest on California governor race as Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton face offDemocrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton are facing off in California's race for governor as locals also vote on what would become the country's first billionaire tax. CBS News' Kris Van Cleave breaks it down. Latest on…
- California governor says commuting all death sentences in stateFrance 24 To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement. One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to…
- Election 2026 California GovernorColumbia Missourian California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a campaign event ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in the Hollywood section of Los Angeles. - To view our latest e-Edition click the image on the left. The…
- California governor to grant clemency to all 548 death row inmates in stateFrance 24 To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement. One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to…
- California Governor-Elect Xavier Becerra Holds First Press ConferenceBecerra talks about the multiple issues he will be addressing upon his inauguration Xavier Becerra held his first press conference on Thursday as California Governor- elect to talk about his slated outline of legislative priorities ahead…
- California Governor Death SentencesWV News File - Chairs are lined up in the witness gallery outside the death chamber at San Quentin State Prison in San Quentin, Calif., Sept. 21, 2010. There was a problem reporting this. Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions