Montana Senate margin of victory (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $5 today · $12.1K traded · $9.7K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

11.4median
-345
Median 11.4Middle half 10.6 – 12.5

How the odds have moved

Median: 9.59 on Oct 20, 11.4 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Alme, 1+ pts 98% 96¢ $1.02 3.5K
Alme, 5+ pts 98% 95¢ $1.03 2.1K
Alme, 10+ pts 97% 0¢ 97¢ $1.03 6.3K
Alme, 12+ pts 29% 20¢ $5.00 478
Alme, 15+ pts 3% ▼ 1 5¢ $20.41 3.1K
Alme, 20+ pts 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 131
Alme, 25+ pts 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 108
Alme, 30+ pts 3% 16¢ $6.25 3.6K
Alme, 35+ pts 3% 8¢ $12.82 2.9K
Alme, 40+ pts 3% 8¢ $12.66 2.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Montana Senate

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  • Kurt Alme wins Montana Senate race, rivals respondNonStop Local Montana · 5 days agoHELENA, Mont. — Republican Kurt Alme secured enough votes to win the U.S. Senate race, prompting responses from Democratic candidate Alani Bankhead and Independent candidate Seth Bodnar.NonStop Local reached out to Bodnar and Bankhead to…
  • Alme Wins Montana Senate as Independent and Democrat Split VoteLegis1 · 6 days agoAlme's victory came as Democrats regained control of both the U.S. House and Senate nationally, setting up divided government under President Donald Trump when the new Congress convenes in January. Republicans retained Montana's Senate…
  • Republican Kurt Alme declares victory in Montana Senate race; Bodnar in strong second placeThe Independent Record · 6 days agoThe dust looks to have settled on the most dramatic federal race in Montana this year, the crowded contest for a U.S. Senate seat left open for the first time in five decades. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Alani Bankhead speaks to a…
  • Montana sees first Democratic House representative in 32 years, passes all ballot initiativesMontana Kaimin · 5 days agoSam Forstag celebrates with campaign staff after declaring victory in the race for Montana House District 1 during his watch party at the Florence Building in Missoula on Nov. 3. Montana remained red by the majority in its midterm election…
  • Montana 2026 election resultsCNN · 7 days agoCNN Montana 2026 election results Live results: Montana Senate Follow live results in the Montana Senate race, county by county, as votes are counted on election night. Senate results by county Live results: Montana House Democrat Sam…
  • Republican Kurt Alme wins race for U.S. Senate seatCulture & Events · 5 days agoGOP candidate Kurt Alme celebrates after annoucing that he is projected to win Montana's Senate election at an election night event in Billings on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Credit: Jessica Plance/MTFP By Tom Lutey MONTANA FREE PRESS Alme had…
  • Dems flip seats in Montana LegislatureDaily Montanan · 5 days agoMontana Democrats flip two seats in state Senate, one in House with potential for more gains in close races The Montana Senate is seen during the Wednesday, February 12, 2025 session. (Nathaniel Bailey for the Daily Montanan) by Jordan…
  • Troy Downing wins reelection to Montana’s Eastern U.S. House DistrictMontana Free Press · 6 days agoThis story was updated Nov. 3, 2026, at 9:50 p.m., to include reporting about Troy Downing’s acceptance speech and comment from Michael Eisenhauer. AP called the race at 9:18 p.m., with about 40% of the vote reported. After the AP…
  • More than 100 big companies paid no federal income tax in 2025The Independent Record · 7 days agoWARNING: This article may affect those who have experienced sexual violence or know someone affected by it.British comedian and actor Russell Brand was convicted on Thursday of rape and sexual assault charges on allegations dating back…
  • Kurt Alme Holds Small Lead in Montana Senate RacePolitical Wire · 11 days agoA new Mountain States Poll poll in Montana finds Kurt Alme (R) leading Seth Bodnar (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 30% to 26%, with Alani Bankhead (D) at 21%, Kyle Austin (L) at 3% and Jami Woodman (WRIT) at 1%. Montana Senate Race Kurt Alme…
  • 2026 Montana Election Results270toWin.com · 9 days agoFind your elected officials 2026 Senate Battle for Control > Montana Montana Senate Polls Republican Sen. Steve Daines is retiring. His preferred successor, former U.S. attorney Kurt Alme, faces Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions