Alaska State Senate winner?
98%Republican party
- Republican party98%
- Democratic party2%
Install
Alaska State House winner?
The odds
69%Democratic party
- Democratic party69%▲ 6
- Republican party16%▲ 4
How the odds have moved
Democratic party: 27% on Oct 20, 69% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 7, 11 PM ETDemocratic party: 30% → 60%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 69% | ▲ 6 | 62¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 6.7K |
| Republican party | 16% | ▲ 4 | 5¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 13.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska State House
Search ›- Republican group spends to support incumbent Democrat in Western Alaska state House raceA Republican political group is running an ad campaign in the tight race for a Western Alaska state House seat, backing an unusual candidate: an incumbent Democrat. But the group’s filings also include spending to boost one-term Rep…
- Opinion: Chugiak-Eagle River families deserve representatives who will stand up for students and schoolsAs Chugiak-Eagle River parents and educators, we see what works in our classrooms and what happens when state support falls short. We see the strain of growing class sizes, the pain of local neighborhood schools closing and facing…
- Déjà vu in some Alaska House districts as voters decide the outcome of rematchesVoters in some of Alaska's state House districts might feel a sense of déjà vu when they go to the polls this year. From the Arctic to South Anchorage, several races for House seats are rematches from 2024 and, in some cases, elections in…
Related markets
All state & local ›North Carolina State Senate winner?
97%Republican party
- Republican party97%▲ 4
- Democratic party2%▼ 2
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nov 3, 2026)
93%Nithya Raman, 8-10%
- Nithya Raman, 8-10%93%▲ 8
- Nithya Raman, 10-12%7%▼ 10
- Nithya Raman, 14-16%1%
7 more
- Nithya Raman, 16-18%1%
- Nithya Raman, ≥18%1%▼ 1
- Nithya Raman, 0-2%<1%
- Nithya Raman, 2-4%<1%
- Nithya Raman, 4-6%<1%
- Nithya Raman, 6-8%<1%
- Nithya Raman, 12-14%<1%▼ 1
Which ballot measures will pass in California? (2026)
100%Proposition 5
- Proposition 5100%▲ 3
- Proposition 3899%▲ 1
- Proposition 4294%▼ 1
4 more
- Proposition 458%▲ 17
- Proposition 432%
- Proposition 412%
- Proposition 451%
Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner
57%Zoran Janković
- Zoran Janković57%▼ 6
- Luka Mesec37%▲ 1
- Anton Rop1%
8 more
- Klemen Boštjančič<1%
- Aleksandar Repić<1%
- Aleš Vrhovec<1%
- Gregor Novak<1%
- Jasmin Feratović<1%
- Aleš Primc<1%
- Mihael Jarc<1%
- Apolonija Simon<1%
Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?
10%Ballot Measure 2
- Ballot Measure 210%▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions