Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout (the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election)

Kalshi Elections › State & local Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $1.1K traded · $1K at stake · prices read 66 min ago

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The odds

1.10Mmedian

950,0001.50M

Median 1.10MMiddle half 1.07M – 1.18M

How the odds have moved

Median: 1.13M on Oct 19, 1.10M now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 1.0M	99%		60¢		$1.01	245
Above 1.05M	92%		63¢		$1.09	130
Above 1.1M	47%		67¢		$2.15	363
Above 1.15M	47%		3¢	34¢	$2.94	542
Above 1.2M	13%		2¢	24¢	$4.17	931
Above 1.25M	13%			47¢	$2.13	632
Above 1.3M	13%			45¢	$2.22	313
Above 1.35M	13%			48¢	$2.08	89.00
Above 1.4M	4%	▼ 16		8¢	$12.50	500
Above 1.45M	1%	▼ 4		1¢	$100.00	522

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Los Angeles

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Los Angeles elects Nithya Raman as socialist mayoral wave growsFox Business · 3 days agoDemocratic socialist mayors expand their reach across major American cities as Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral race. Joining Zohran Mamdani under socialist leadership, Raman highlights homelessness, housing…
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral raceFox News · 3 days agoFox News Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race Fox News' Christina Coleman reports on Nithya Raman's victory in the Los Angeles mayoral race. Fox News' Christina Coleman reports on Democratic socialist Nithya…
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman will be Los Angeles' next mayorNPR · 4 days agoNPR Democratic socialist Nithya Raman will be Los Angeles' next mayor Democratic socialist Nithya Raman has been elected Los Angeles mayor, over incumbent Karen Bass. NPR does not offer or accept money for coverage or interviews. Become an…
Nithya Raman celebrates projected win in Los Angeles mayor's raceCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Nithya Raman…
Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race, NBC News projectsNBC News · 4 days agoNithya Raman will be the next mayor of Los Angeles after defeating incumbent Karen Bass. NBC News' Andres Gutierrez has more on next steps from Raman and other city officials as she makes the transition to her new role. Nithya Raman wins…
Democratic socialist defeats incumbent Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayor's raceBBC News · 4 days agoDemocratic socialist Nithya Raman has toppled incumbent Karen Bass in the race for mayor of Los Angeles. Raman's win stunned political watchers in California after she entered the race as a long-shot candidate against Bass, a political…
Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayor's race, CBS News projectsCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Nithya Raman…
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass to win Los Angeles mayoral race – videothe Guardian · 4 days agoThe Guardian Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass to win Los Angeles mayoral race – video Nithya Raman declared victory in the Los Angeles mayoral race after the incumbent, Karen Bass, conceded. Raman vowed to 'build…
Nithya Raman elected as Los Angeles mayor, defeating incumbent Karen BassCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Nithya Raman…
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race over incumbent Karen Bassthe Guardian · 4 days agoMajor shake-up as LA councilmember, once considered long shot, ousts Democratic rival she had once endorsed Nithya Raman was elected to serve as the mayor of Los Angeles, eking out a narrow win over incumbent Karen Bass, in a major…
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayor’s raceNBC News · 4 days agoCity Council member Nithya Raman has defeated incumbent Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral race, NBC News projects, capping off a rapid political ascent for a progressive challenger who railed against the “broken status quo” in the…
Who is Nithya Raman, the democratic socialist who will be Los Angeles’s next mayor?the Guardian · 4 days agoUrban planner and outsider who bested Karen Bass has close ties to Hollywood progressives – and a complicated relationship with the DSA Nithya Raman on Thursday unseated Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass after a neck-and-neck race for the…

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Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nov 3, 2026)

93%Nithya Raman, 8-10%

Nithya Raman, 8-10%93%▲ 8
Nithya Raman, 10-12%7%▼ 10
Nithya Raman, 14-16%1%

7 more

Nithya Raman, 16-18%1%
Nithya Raman, ≥18%1%▼ 1
Nithya Raman, 0-2%<1%
Nithya Raman, 2-4%<1%
Nithya Raman, 4-6%<1%
Nithya Raman, 6-8%<1%
Nithya Raman, 12-14%<1%▼ 1

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Which ballot measures will pass in California? (2026)

100%Proposition 5

Proposition 5100%▲ 3
Proposition 3899%▲ 1
Proposition 4294%▼ 1

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Proposition 458%▲ 17
Proposition 432%
Proposition 412%
Proposition 451%

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Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

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Klemen Boštjančič<1%
Aleksandar Repić<1%
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Ballot Measure 210%▲ 2

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Ohio Attorney General winner? (2026)

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John Kulewicz99%▲ 1
Keith Faber1%▼ 1

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California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No) (Nov 3, 2026)

4.92%median

-2%25%

Median 4.92%Middle half 3.14% – 6.37%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCity of Los Angeles

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$1.1K (4,267 contracts)

This week$445

At stake$1K

In the news71 headlines today, 256 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is above 1000000, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions