Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
59%At least 30%
16%34%
Install
Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
The odds
47.62%median
36%56%
Median 47.62%Middle half 46.71% – 51.57%
How the odds have moved
Median: 47.51% on Oct 20, 47.62% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 38% | 99% | $1.01 | 3.3K | |||
| At least 40% | 95% | $1.05 | 2.3K | |||
| At least 42% | 95% | $1.06 | 2.4K | |||
| At least 44% | 95% | $1.06 | 1.9K | |||
| At least 46% | 95% | ▲ 25 | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 898 |
| At least 48% | 40% | 2¢ | $2.53 | 200 | ||
| At least 50% | 40% | ▼ 27 | 6¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 2.4K |
| At least 52% | 21% | 38¢ | $2.63 | 2.0K | ||
| At least 54% | 3% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 8.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska Governor, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Search ›- Kalshi projects Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins wins Alaska governor raceThe Democrat led Kalshi's market after the August primary, trading near 88% in the final week. Kalshi projects Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) will win the 2026 Alaska governor race, defeating Bernadette Wilson (R). Traders on Kalshi priced…
- Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads in Alaska governor’s raceDemocrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative from Sitka, has a substantial lead in the race for governor. With 84% of precincts reporting, Kreiss-Tomkins leads with 49% of the vote. “We’re pretty pleased with the numbers…
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins answers questions before votingAlaska's News Source Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins answers questions before voting Heavy rain heads to Southeast while cooler air moves across the rest of Alaska
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), David Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R), Bernadette Wilson (R), and two other candidates are running in the general election for governor and lieutenant governor of Alaskaon November 3, 2026. In Alaska, candidates for lieutenant governor run on a ticket with candidates for governor. Incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R), first elected in 2018, is not running for re-election. As of November 1, 2026, Dunleavy had not…
- Alaska Governor Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsSome states and some individual counties provide results broken down by type of ballot cast, which can include Election Day votes, or those cast early, either in person or by mail. Whenever that ... Susan Collins' remarkable run as the…
- Four candidates make final push in Alaska governor's race ahead of Election DayFour candidates are competing for Alaska governor, with Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Republicans Dave Bronson, Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor making their cases to voters. While Alaska’s U.S. Senate race has drawn significant…
- Democrat Kreiss-Tomkins takes early lead in Alaska governor’s race as ballot counting beginsDemocrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is leading Alaska’s gubernatorial election with just over 65,000 ballots counted as of Tuesday evening. It’s a result that marks a rebuke of current Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican who has led the state…
- Alaska 2026 election resultsGOP Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democratic former congresswoman Mary Peltola as her party tries to win an Alaska Senate seat for the first time since 2008. If no candidate wins a majority, the election will be decided through ranked-choice…
- The buying of the Alaska Governor’s Mansion: JKT’s $5.3 million campaign rides a wave of Outside moneyHome » The buying of the Alaska Governor’s Mansion: JKT’s $5.3 million campaign rides a wave of Outside money Nov. 1, 2026 – Alaska is in the middle of a historic race for governor, unlike anything it has ever seen. The money for Jonathan…
- Alaska governor recalls moment he suspected something was ‘not right’ in 'Decoy Dan' schemeAlaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy speaks about the federal investigation into an alleged ballot-stacking scheme involving the state’s Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Mary Peltola's campaign on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’ Alaska governor recalls moment he…
- Alaska governor details probe into alleged ballot schemeAlaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy joins 'America's Newsroom' to discuss his probe into Democrats' alleged ballot scheme after the Justice Department issued more than 30 subpoenas. Alaska governor details probe into alleged ballot scheme Alaska…
- Alaska Senate Race Odds: Peltola vs. Sullivan and Governor Race Prediction Market ProbabilitiesPrediction markets give Democrat Mary Peltola a 70% chance and Republican Dan Sullivan a 31% chance to win the Alaska Senate race, and price Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 90% in the governor's race, based on Kalshi and Polymarket consensus…
Related markets
All governors ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
14.41%median
8%28%
Median 14.41%Middle half 13.16% – 15.33%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
11.57%median
7%40%
Median 11.57%Middle half 10.75% – 12.38%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
46.75%median
30%65%
Median 46.75%Middle half 46.32% – 49.08%
Montana Senate election: Seth Bodnar vote percent
36.06%median
10%50%
Median 36.06%Middle half 35.48% – 36.63%
Nebraska Senate election: Dan Osborn vote percent
43.5%median
36%63%
Median 43.5%Middle half 42.7% – 44.3%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions