Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
59%At least 30%
16%34%
Install
Montana Senate election: Seth Bodnar vote percent
The odds
36.06%median
10%50%
Median 36.06%Middle half 35.48% – 36.63%
How the odds have moved
Median: 36.35% on Oct 20, 36.06% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 15% | 99% | 97¢ | $1.01 | 12.00 | ||
| At least 20% | 99% | 75¢ | $1.01 | 7.8K | ||
| At least 25% | 99% | 75¢ | $1.01 | 10.0K | ||
| At least 30% | 99% | 77¢ | $1.01 | 8.0K | ||
| At least 33% | 96% | 63¢ | $1.04 | 4.3K | ||
| At least 35% | 96% | 75¢ | $1.04 | 8.6K | ||
| At least 37% | 9% | $11.11 | 3.1K | |||
| At least 40% | 4% | 29¢ | $3.45 | 8.5K | ||
| At least 45% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 199 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Montana Senate, Seth Bodnar
Search ›- Seth Bodnar concedes in Montana U.S. Senator race, congratulates Kurt AlmeIndependent Seth Bodnar has conceded the race to represent Montana in the U.S. Senate to Republican Kurt Alme. UPDATE: November 4, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. Democratic candidate Alani Bankhead released a statement congratulating Republican…
- Kurt Alme defeated Alani Bankhead, Seth Bodnar, and two other candidates in the general election for the U.S. Senate in MontanaBallotpedia News Kurt Alme defeated Alani Bankhead, Seth Bodnar, and two other candidates in the general election for the U.S. Senate in Montana On March 4, 2026, incumbent Steve Daines (R) withdrew his candidacy and endorsed Alme, who…
- Republican Kurt Alme declares victory, independent Seth Bodnar concedes🇺🇸 Election news from around the country READ MORE Republican Kurt Alme declared victory in the U.S. Senate race Tuesday. He's pictured here at an event in Belgrade, Montana, on Monday, Oct. 26, 2026. (Jordan Hansen/Daily Montanan)…
- Republican Kurt Alme leading in US Senate race, independent Seth Bodnar still hopeful🇺🇸 Election news from around the country READ MORE by Keila Szpaller, Daily Montanan November 3, 2026 Republican Kurt Alme was leading on election night, but the U.S. Senate race had yet to be called around 10 p.m. Alme, whom political…
- Kurt Alme wins Montana Senate race, rivals respondHELENA, Mont. â Republican Kurt Alme secured enough votes to win the U.S. Senate race, prompting responses from Democratic candidate Alani Bankhead and Independent candidate Seth Bodnar.NonStop Local reached out to Bodnar and Bankhead to…
- Republican Kurt Alme declares victory in Montana Senate race; Bodnar in strong second placeThe dust looks to have settled on the most dramatic federal race in Montana this year, the crowded contest for a U.S. Senate seat left open for the first time in five decades. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Alani Bankhead speaks to a…
- Alme Wins Montana Senate as Independent and Democrat Split VoteAlme's victory came as Democrats regained control of both the U.S. House and Senate nationally, setting up divided government under President Donald Trump when the new Congress convenes in January. Republicans retained Montana's Senate…
- Montana sees first Democratic House representative in 32 years, passes all ballot initiativesSam Forstag celebrates with campaign staff after declaring victory in the race for Montana House District 1 during his watch party at the Florence Building in Missoula on Nov. 3. Montana remained red by the majority in its midterm election…
- Conventional Wisdom: Midterms EditionNov 05, 2026 at 03:52 AM EST Nov 05, 2026 at 06:00 AM EST A wave election is supposed to be about the candidates. It ends up grading everyone who tried to tilt the odds around them: the mapmakers, the donors and the party officials…
- Big win, big loss for Democrats in MontanaIndependent U.S. Senate candidate Seth Bodnar, left, talks with supporters downtown Missoula on election night 2026. (Keila Szpaller/Daily Montanan) ELECTION NEWS AROUND THE COUNTRY by Keila Szpaller, Daily Montanan November 6, 2026 In the…
- Republican Kurt Alme wins race for U.S. Senate seatAlme had declared victory shortly after 11:30 p.m. and Bodnar conceded shortly before midnight. “Remembering Ronald Reagan, let’s raise a banner of bold colors, not pale pastels,” Alme told a Billings audience at the DoubleTree Hotel…
- Independent Bodnar bid leaves Montana Democrats dividedIndependent U.S. Senate candidate Seth Bodnar speaks at a campaign event at Montana Taphouse in Whitefish on Oct. 27, 2026. (Hailey Smalley/Daily Inter Lake) The “blue wave” that flipped so many U.S. Senate seats for Democrats on election…
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All senate ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
14.41%median
8%28%
Median 14.41%Middle half 13.16% – 15.33%
Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
47.62%median
36%56%
Median 47.62%Middle half 46.71% – 51.57%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
11.57%median
7%40%
Median 11.57%Middle half 10.75% – 12.38%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
46.75%median
30%65%
Median 46.75%Middle half 46.32% – 49.08%
Nebraska Senate election: Dan Osborn vote percent
43.5%median
36%63%
Median 43.5%Middle half 42.7% – 44.3%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions