Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
59%At least 30%
16%34%
Install
CA-11 House election: Connie Chan vote percent
The odds
46.29%median
36%58%
Median 46.29%Middle half 45.14% – 47.18%
How the odds have moved
Median: 46.41% on Oct 19, 46.29% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 38% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | 100 | ||
| At least 40% | 98% | ▼ 1 | 95¢ | $1.03 | 149 | |
| At least 42% | 98% | ▲ 12 | 95¢ | $1.03 | 25.00 | |
| At least 44% | 98% | ▲ 27 | 95¢ | $1.03 | 3.0K | |
| At least 46% | 58% | 70¢ | $1.72 | 11.00 | ||
| At least 48% | 2% | ▼ 10 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 97.00 | |
| At least 50% | 2% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 234 | |
| At least 52% | 2% | ▼ 4 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 231 | |
| At least 54% | 2% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 785 | |
| At least 56% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 554 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Connie Chan
Search ›- Scott Weiner takes early lead over Connie Chan to replace Nancy PelosiThe successor of Democratic icon and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi looks increasingly likely to be state Sen. Scott Wiener and not her own endorsed pick, according to preliminary election results Wednesday morning. With a little more…
- Scott Wiener claims Pelosi’s seat after 40 years as Connie Chan throws in the towelScott Wiener has won the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress after his chief rival, San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, conceded Wednesday afternoon. Chan threw in the towel after the latest ballot count showed the state senator…
- Connie Chan Concedes To Scott Wiener In House Race To Replace PelosiSAN FRANCISCO, CA — Following a tight race to replace longtime San Francisco House Representative Nancy Pelosi, candidate Connie Chan has conceded to Scott Wiener. "After reviewing the results and the ballots remaining to be counted, while…
- Scott Wiener set to replace Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco as Connie Chan concedesBy Derek Wallbank, Bloomberg News California state lawmaker Scott Wiener appears to have defeated Representative Nancy Pelosi’s handpicked successor in her San Francisco congressional district. Democrat Connie Chan said she does not have a…
- Scott Wiener Claims Victory for Pelosi’s Seat After Connie Chan ConcedesPublished 5 Nov 2026, 23:19 UTC Wiener leads Chan in California's 11th District as Chan concedes Chan concedes after Wiener leads; Pelosi-backed candidate falls short California state Sen. Scott Wiener claimed victory in the race to…
- Scott Wiener defeats Connie Chan in California's District 11 raceSan Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan conceded defeat to State Senator Scott Wiener on Wednesday in the race for Spearker Emerita Nancy Pelosi's District 11 seat in Congress. Chan said she did not have a clear path to victoy one day after…
- Scott Wiener wins Nancy Pelosi’s seat after Connie Chan concedesSupervisor Connie Chan conceded her race to succeed Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday afternoon after the latest vote drop showed her lagging behind state Sen. Scott Wiener by 10 points, a 44.5% to 55.5% tilt. Wiener will be San…
- Connie Chan concedes defeat to Scott Wiener in D11 congressional raceKTVU San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan conceded defeat to State Senator Scott Wiener on Wednesday in the race for Spearker Emerita Nancy Pelosi's District 11 seat in Congress. Chan said she did not have a clear path to victoy one day…
- Connie Chan concedes to Scott Wiener in SF congressional raceSen. Scott Wiener speaks at the BART Colma maintenance yard before Gov. Gavin Newsom signs legislation authorizing a $590 million emergency loan to Bay Area Transit in Colma, Calif., on Feb.19, 2026. San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan…
- Nancy Pelosi went all in to anoint Connie Chan as her successor. It didn’t workConnie Chan and Nancy Pelosi rally voters on May 30, 2026. San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan stands beside Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi at a get-out-the-vote rally in San Francisco on May 29, 2026. Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi’s last…
- Connie Chan concedes to Scott Wiener in California’s District 11 raceSan Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan conceded defeat to State Senator Scott Wiener on Wednesday in the race for Spearker Emerita Nancy Pelosi's District 11 seat in Congress. Chan said she did not have a clear path to victoy one day after…
- San Francisco voters to decide between Democrats Connie Chan, Scott Wiener in race to succeed Nancy PelosiUpdated on: November 3, 2026 / 6:48 AM PST / CBS San Francisco Voters will choose between two Democrats in the race to succeed U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the former House Speaker who is retiring after nearly four decades in Congress. The race…
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All house ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
14.41%median
8%28%
Median 14.41%Middle half 13.16% – 15.33%
Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
47.62%median
36%56%
Median 47.62%Middle half 46.71% – 51.57%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
11.57%median
7%40%
Median 11.57%Middle half 10.75% – 12.38%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
46.75%median
30%65%
Median 46.75%Middle half 46.32% – 49.08%
Montana Senate election: Seth Bodnar vote percent
36.06%median
10%50%
Median 36.06%Middle half 35.48% – 36.63%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions