Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
59%At least 30%
16%34%
Install
CA-24 House election: Bob Smith vote percent
The odds
33.55%median
16%46%
Median 33.55%Middle half 32.41% – 35.36%
How the odds have moved
Median: 36.8% on Oct 20, 33.55% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 24% | 95% | $1.05 | 201 | |||
| At least 32% | 84% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 5.00 | ||
| At least 34% | 40% | $2.50 | 620 | |||
| At least 36% | 18% | $5.56 | 7.0K | |||
| At least 38% | 6% | $16.67 | 5.9K | |||
| At least 40% | 4% | $25.00 | 2.8K | |||
| At least 42% | 2% | $50.00 | 426 | |||
| At least 44% | 2% | $50.00 | 514 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Bob Smith
Search ›- Salud Carbajal leads Bob Smith in District 24 congressional raceSalud Carbajal is leading the race for California’s 24th Congressional District, with 67 percent of the vote as of 9 p.m. on Election Day. Voters across the district are deciding who will represent the Central Coast in Washington, D.C. The…
- CA House Races 2026: Real-Time ResultsLOS ANGELES, CA — The polls have closed, and the results of California's 52 Congressional races will soon begin rolling in even as it's already clear that voters nationwide have handed control of the U.S. House of Representatives to…
- CA House Races To Watch: The Blue Wave And Election InterferenceLOS ANGELES, CA — Heading into Election Day Tuesday, the most heated battles in California's 52 Congressional districts are taking place in courtrooms where the Trump Administration is sandbagging ahead of the coming blue wave. The…
- Recall petition against Leslie Mayor Corey Capone dismissedThe recall petition against Leslie Mayor Corey Capone was dismissed as legally insufficient on Nov. 5. The recall petition application was submitted more than 15 days after the sponsor received […] Recall petition against Leslie Mayor…
- New Bakersfield City Council begins to take shapeThe Bakersfield Californian A part of The Californianâs ongoing coverage of candidates and issues in local, state and national politics. Expect some new faces on the Bakersfield City Council come next year. Ward 2 Councilman Andrae…
- Alleged election fraudster leading in Stockton City Council contest marred by legal probesLegally-embattled Stockton City Council contender Desiree Lynch is leading similarly embattled Stockton Councilman Brando Villapudua. Alleged election fraudster leading in Stockton City Council contest marred by legal probes It looks like…
- UPDATED: Bakersfield City Council: Smith concedes in Ward 4; other incumbents appear safeProfessional fighter and business owner Juan Carlos "JC" Llamas, known professionally at the Leg-Lock Monster, is one of five candidates running for the Bakersfield City Council Ward 3 seat. A part of The Californian’s ongoing coverage of…
- County, state and federal General Election results roll in on Nov. 4Ventura County Clerk Recorder and Registrar of Voters Michelle Ascencion at the Ventura County Government Center. State, federal and county election results were produced throughout the night on Nov. 3 and continue to roll in, showing a…
- The defeat of Susan Collins marks the end of the moderate RepublicanAndrew Cohen is a journalist, author and professor. His latest book is Two Days in June: John F. Kennedy and the 48 Hours That Made History. When Susan Collins took her place for the first time in the United States Senate on Jan. 3, 1997…
- Bakersfield City Council race results hold steadyThe Bakersfield Californian A part of The Californianâs ongoing coverage of candidates and issues in local, state and national politics. The latest results in the Bakersfield City Council race were released by the Kern County Elections…
- November 2026 Midterm Election Results in Santa Barbara CountyLive Results for National, State, and Regional Races, Measures, and Propositions It’s the November 2026 midterm election, and we’ll be using this page to deliver results for some key local, state, and national races, as well as statewide…
- Carbajal retains seat in 24th Congressional District by large marginIncumbent 24th Congressional District Rep. Salud Carbajal, a Democrat, retained his seat Tuesday by a large margin, winning out over Republican challenger Bob Smith. Carbajal had 109,061 votes, or 65.8% while Smith garnered 56,606 votes…
Related markets
All house ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
14.41%median
8%28%
Median 14.41%Middle half 13.16% – 15.33%
Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
47.62%median
36%56%
Median 47.62%Middle half 46.71% – 51.57%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
11.57%median
7%40%
Median 11.57%Middle half 10.75% – 12.38%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
46.75%median
30%65%
Median 46.75%Middle half 46.32% – 49.08%
Montana Senate election: Seth Bodnar vote percent
36.06%median
10%50%
Median 36.06%Middle half 35.48% – 36.63%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions