Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
59%At least 30%
16%34%
Install
IN-02 House election: Jamee Decio vote percent
The odds
84%At least 34%
- At least 34%84%
How the odds have moved
At least 34%: 84% on Oct 20, 84% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 3, 9 PM ETAt least 34%: 96% → 84%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
The news: IN- House, Jamee Decio
Search ›- Jeffries: Democrats "on the verge of taking back control" of the HouseCNN's Manu Raju hits the campaign trail in California with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could be just months away from becoming the first Black speaker of the House of Representatives. While confident, Jeffries is also…
- California abortion rights advocate sweats Biden drag on House racesJodi Hicks, president of Planned Parenthood California, indicated Democrats were taking a big risk in losing the House if they stuck with President Joe Biden. Jodi Hicks, an ally of the vice president and a major player in the capital city…
- Interactive graphic: Explore how the battle for the House could play outJavier Zarracina is an award-winning senior data and graphics editor for NBC News, where he creates maps, interactives and data visualizations across topics including politics, business, science, health and breaking news. Who will win…
- Top election forecaster: GOP path to holding the House "has all but evaporated"A top election forecaster is now making a major projection, moving the Ohio Governor's race from a Toss-Up to Leans Democrat, and is shifting 19 House races toward Democrats. David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report tells Erin Burnett…
- How Democrats could win the House, how the GOP could hang on, and where to look for a waveDemocrats must compete deeper in territory Trump won in 2024 to make big gains in this year’s midterms, but the political environment is on their side. In 2024, America swung to the right, powering Donald Trump back to the White House with…
- Intel chiefs stand by defense of Signal chat at House hearing after new texts emergeUpdated on: March 26, 2025 / 1:56 PM EDT / CBS News Washington — Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe defended their participation in a group chat on the encrypted messaging app Signal that…
- Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House racesIn the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this…
- How to track insertions in House-approved 2027 budgetBUDGET INSERTION TRACKER. People’s Budget Coalition and BetterGovPH launch a website that allows the public to track budget increases for congressional districts in the proposed 2027 national budget, MANILA, Philippines – The People’s…
- We're on a path to 'barely' hold the House: Majority Leader ScaliseFox News We're on a path to 'barely' hold the House: Majority Leader Scalise House Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., discusses what Democratic control of Congress could look like on 'Hannity.' House Majority Leader Rep. Steve…
- How to track budget insertions in the House-approved 2027 budgetBUDGET INSERTION TRACKER. People’s Budget Coalition and BetterGovPH launch a website that allows the public to track budget increases for congressional districts in the proposed 2027 national budget, MANILA, Philippines – The People’s…
- Battleground Map Widens as House Races Flash Warning SignsControl of Congress is again tilting toward a handful of fiercely contested districts, but this cycle’s battlefield looks broader and more volatile than usual. What had once been a narrow map is stretching into more states and more…
- Top Republican in the House Opposes Bill Authorizing Jan. 6th CommissionHouse Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced he will oppose the bipartisan bill creating a commission to study the January 6th riot at the U.S. Capitol. But McCarthy had some pointed objections to the bill. Recommended: Pelosi’s Latest…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions