Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
59%At least 30%
16%34%
Install
IN-03 House election: Marlin Stutzman vote percent
The odds
57.74%median
52%70%
Median 57.74%Middle half 56.34% – 59.14%
How the odds have moved
Median: 60.42% on Oct 20, 57.74% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 56% | 81% | $1.23 | 1.4K | |||
| At least 60% | 10% | $10.34 | 5.00 | |||
| At least 62% | 10% | $10.34 | 5.00 | |||
| At least 64% | 10% | $10.34 | 15.00 | |||
| At least 66% | 6% | 10¢ | $10.00 | 5.00 | ||
| At least 68% | 6% | $18.18 | 8.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: IN- House, Marlin Stutzman
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- Dem consultant handicaps key Senate races' status, and the problem his party will have if they capture the HouseDan Turrentine, former Capitol Hill chief of staff to Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, lays out the stakes and standings for the key Senate races that could determine who controls Congress after Tuesday's midterm elections. Dem…
- Why Tim Walberg wants to lead the House education committeeDelivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Education examines the latest news in education politics and policy. 10/21/2024 10:00 AM EDT A Rep. Tim Walberg-led committee would prioritize strengthening the relationship between education and…
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- Vice President JD Vance explains what will happen if Democrats win the House and SenateVice President JD Vance warns what could happen if Democrats take control of the House and Senate and makes a final pitch to voters ahead of Election Day on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’ ... Vice President JD Vance explains what will happen…
- Democrats believe an old Trump tactic will help them win back the HouseBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump won 2024 with a…
- The battle for the future of a House Democratic majority is ragingRival factions are already plotting how they will wield influence in anticipation of a midterm victory. House progressives, led by Rep. Greg Casar (R-Texas), recently ran a member retreat to make plans for a possible majority. | Francis…
- These are the House races to watch in the 2026 midterm election on Nov. 3In the final week of the 2026 midterm election, ad spending data suggests the core battle is less about stopping a Democratic wave in the House, and more about figuring out how high it crests. An NPR analysis finds the final competitive…
- Rep. LaLota Making Bid for Third Term in HouseThe news from Huntington, NY US Rep. Nick LaLota is seeking to return to Congress for a third term, aided by a large advantage in fundraising but facing what could be a Democratic takeover of the House. He is running against Democrat Chris…
- Mapping the battle for control of the HouseAs candidates make a final push to win over voters ahead of Election Day, Lisa Desjardins takes a deep dive into the battle for the House of Representatives. And Lisa Desjardins joins us now at the super screen for a deeper dive into the…
- Permitting backers want Senate to rack up vote count to send message to the HouseSupporters of the Senate’s bill see a strong vote count as necessary to get it to the president's desk. 10/29/2026 5:05 PM EDT Backers of the Senate’s sweeping permitting bill are setting a high target for its performance in its first vote…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions