Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
59%At least 30%
16%34%
Install
MN-01 House election: Brad Finstad vote percent
The odds
3%At least 50%
49%62%
How the odds have moved
At least 50%: 54% on Oct 19, 3% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 3, 9 PM ETAt least 50%: 59% → 45%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 2.2K | ||
| At least 51% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 210 | ||
| At least 52% | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 629 | |
| At least 54% | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 118 | ||
| At least 56% | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 30.00 | ||
| At least 58% | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 5.00 | ||
| At least 60% | 2% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | $25.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: MN- House, Brad Finstad
Search ›- Jake Johnson sneaks past Brad Finstad in an apparent upset in Minnesota’s southern congressional districtJake Johnson appears to have ridden a blue wave into Congress, upsetting incumbent Brad Finstad in a district once seen as safely Republican, though the razor-thin margin will trigger a recount. The Rochester teacher-turned-Democratic…
- Jake Johnson declares victory in Minnesota’s 1st District race against Brad Finstad; recount likelySouthern Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District race is likely headed to a recount after an extremely narrow vote margin as of Wednesday morning. Democratic candidate Jake Johnson has claimed victory as he currently leads Incumbent Rep…
- MN House 2A Candidates Duran, Olson Discuss Election Before Results Come InNov 3, 2026 | By: Lakeland News MN House 2A Candidates Duran, Olson Discuss Election Before Results Come In Lakeland News is member supported content, please consider supporting Lakeland PBS today.
- Conway, Daisane election results in St. Cloud-area MN House 14A raceVoters in Minnesota House District 14A on Nov. 3 go to polls to choose between Republican candidate Mike Conway and Democratic candidate Abdi Daisane to represent them in the state legislature. House District 14A, currently represented by…
- Other MN House Results: Newcomers Schuette and Lewis Win ElectionVoters in the CCX Media coverage area largely returned incumbent members of the Minnesota House of Representatives to their respective seats in the Nov. 3 election. Kyrstin Schuette, a DFLer and a first-time candidate, won election over…
- GOP Moorhead MN House candidate Andrew Rockhold says he would find state spending to cut once he’s in officeCourtesy: Rockhold For House MOORHEAD, Minn. (KFGO) – Republican candidate for Minnesota House District 4A Andrew Rockhold wants to eliminate state property taxes. The district covers all of Moorhead south of 15th Ave. N. “Afternoons Live”…
- Minnesota's 1st Congressional District race remains a toss-up, CBS News reportsNovember 4, 2026 / 7:17 AM CST / CBS Minnesota Minnesota's 1st Congressional District remains a toss-up Wednesday morning, with incumbent Republican Rep. Brad Finstad facing Democratic challenger Jake Johnson, CBS News projects. As of 7…
- GOP GETTING DESPERATE! As Dems look to flip MN House seat, Trump-aligned PAC pumps $1.2M into raceMS NOW’s Jonathan Capehart talks to Jake Johnson, the Democratic nominee for Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, on his campaign to flip a seat that Trump won by 12 points and the Republican incumbent won by 17 points in 2024. GOP…
- Affordability, energy and taxes dominates local MN House, Senate forumCandidates for the Minnesota Senate District 30 and the Minnesota House Districts 30A and 30B debated affordability and energy policies at the Elk River Chamber of Commerce candidate forum on Sept. 23, 2026. Sen. Eric Lucero, the incumbent…
- Brad Finstad won by 17 points in 2024. A Democratic poll now has him tied at 43%.October 28, 2026 / 6:29 PM CDT / CBS Minnesota Republican Rep. Brad Finstad won reelection by 17 percentage points two years ago. With days left before the election, he is tied at 43% each with Democrat Jake Johnson, a high school math…
- Live election results: Minnesota 1st Congressional DistrictU.S. Rep. Brad Finstad (left) and Jake Johnson (right). (FOX 9) - Republican Rep. Brad Finstad is seeking a third full term as he faces DFL challenger Jake Johnson in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District. Political analysts have said the…
- Jake Johnson is sent to congress after a tight raceJake Johnson took the lead later into the race with just a few hundred more votes. ROCHESTER, Minn. (KTTC) – Jake Johnson has been selected by voters to be their representative in Minnesota’s first congressional district. Johnson won the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions