VA-04 House election: Robert Murray vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $2.3K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

26.5%median

20%38%

Median 26.5%Middle half 23.66% – 29.63%

How the odds have moved

Median: 29.03% on Oct 20, 26.5% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Pays	Contracts
At least 22%	99%	60¢	$1.01	337
At least 24%	70%		$1.43	2.7K
At least 32%	6%		$16.67	5.00
At least 34%	5%		$20.00	805
At least 36%	5%		$20.00	200

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: VA- House, Robert Murray

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Election Day is Tuesday. Here’s what the Richmond area is voting on.The Richmonder · 8 days agoCongressional control is the big thing up for grabs in Tuesday’s midterm elections, but there are other issues and contests on the ballot in the Richmond area that have less to do with national politics. There are school board races in…
Virginia Election Day 2026: What’s on the ballotlegacynewspaper.com · 11 days agoA member of the U.S Black Press Who’s on the ballot?Every Richmond-area voter will see races for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House.U.S. Senate: Democratic Sen. Mark Warner is seeking his fourth and final term against Republican Bert Mizusawa…
Health care, energy costs shape congressional racesThe Center Square · 11 days ago(The Center Square) – Virginia voters will decide 11 congressional races Tuesday, including those in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, where health care, electricity costs and federal spending are among the issues. Democratic Rep. Bobby…
Robert Murray, candidate in 4th District race, not convinced Russia sanctions are effectiveCBS 6 News Richmond WTVR · 16 days agoRICHMOND, Va. — With early voting underway ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3, it's time to meet the candidates. Each of the major candidates in Virginia's US Senate race and the three Congressional races in the WTVR viewing area has…
Key Election Day deadlines to remember for Virginia, PetersburgYahoo News · 19 days agoWith Election Day approaching on Nov. 3, Virginia residents have several voting deadlines to consider, including the early voting period, registration and absentee ballots. While many eyes are on the congressional races between Democratic…
This is what Daily Kos is forDaily Kos · 20 days agoYes, this – electing more and better Democrats! We have a chance to help a Democrat right now. Many here know of her, much has been written about her. I’ve linked to just some of the pieces by several authors. The D Party blocked Jasmine…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onState Board of Elections, Richmond, VA

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$2.3K (4,060 contracts)

At stake$1.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Robert Murray in the 2026 VA-04 House election is 16% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions