Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
59%At least 30%
16%34%
Install
Alaska Senate election: Mary Peltola vote percent (Final Round)
The odds
52.41%median
42%62%
Median 52.41%Middle half 50.53% – 53.29%
How the odds have moved
Median: 51.19% on Oct 20, 52.41% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 44% | 98% | $1.02 | 1.0K | |||
| At least 46% | 98% | 2¢ | $1.02 | 1.0K | ||
| At least 48% | 92% | $1.09 | 4.1K | |||
| At least 50% | 90% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 1.1K | ||
| At least 51% | 62% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 160 | ||
| At least 52% | 62% | 96¢ | $1.04 | 1.3K | ||
| At least 54% | 5% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 1.0K | ||
| At least 58% | 2% | $50.00 | 5.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska Senate, Mary Peltola
Search ›- WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee Mary Peltola speaks on election night in AlaskaFox Business WATCH LIVE: Dem Senate nominee Mary Peltola speaks on election night in Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola addresses supporters in Anchorage as results come in for the Alaska Senate race.
- AOC-backed Alaska Senate hopeful Mary Peltola accused of using n-wordMary Peltola — the Alaska Democratic Senate hopeful famously championed by “Squad” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — is fighting allegations by former staffers she used the n-word. Peltola, 53, is challenging incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan…
- Mary Peltola Ahead in Alaska Senate RaceA new AtlasIntel poll in Alaska finds Mary Peltola (D) leading Dan S. Sullivan (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 45%. Alaska Senate Race Mary Peltola (D) 50% Dan S. Sullivan (R) 45% AtlasIntel poll · likely voters · ±4% A new AtlasIntel…
- Alaska Senate Race: Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola Await Results Amid ‘Fake Candidate’ RowThe closely watched contest drew national attention over allegations of a candidate with the same name as Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan being fielded to influence the outcome The two main candidates in Alaska’s US Senate race urged…
- Dan Sullivan vs Dan Sullivan vs Mary Peltola: How a namesake candidate stirred controversy in Alaska's Senate race- Moneycontrol.comThe Alaska Senate race became one of the most contentious contests in the 2026 US midterm elections, with a third candidate sharing a name with Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan triggering allegations of voter confusion, a federal…
- Alaska Senate race: Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola project confidence while awaiting resultsJUNEAU, Alaska — The two major candidates in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race urged supporters to be patient as results began coming in late Tuesday, delivering rousing speeches and expressing confidence against the backdrop of the fallout from…
- Alaska Senate Race Results: Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan and the Ranked-Choice CountMary Peltola, a Democrat and former congresswoman, challenges Senator Dan Sullivan, and Alaska counts under ranked-choice rules. Where the count stands, how far the districts moved since 2024 and which money from crypto and AI backed the…
- Alaska Senate candidate ‘Decoy’ Dan Sullivan missing on Election Day as Trump alleges ‘criminal act’WASHINGTON — Daniel J. Sullivan, the independent Alaska Senate candidate with the same name as incumbent Republican Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan, remained missing on Election Day as President Trump accused him of committing a “criminal act.”…
- Trump slams Alaska ballot controversy: Mary Peltola should be ‘prosecuted’President Donald Trump discusses allegations that Alaska Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Mary Peltola's campaign recruited another candidate named Dan Sullivan to run for Senate while speaking at a rally in Iowa. Trump slams Alaska ballot…
- 'Decoy Dan' receives thousands of votes in Alaska Senate raceFox News 'Decoy Dan' receives thousands of votes in Alaska Senate race Fox News senior national correspondent Kevin Corke reports on the Alaska U.S. Senate race and other key contests as Democrats are projected to take control of both the…
- Trump calls for Alaska’s Mary Peltola to be removed form ballot, prosecutedPresident Donald Trump discusses allegations that Alaska Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Mary Peltola's campaign recruited another candidate named Dan Sullivan to run for Senate while speaking at a rally in Iowa. Trump calls for Alaska’s…
- ‘It’s disgusting’: Sen Dan Sullivan calls out Mary Peltola’s alleged ballot schemeAlaska GOP U.S. Senate nominee Dan Sullivan discusses allegations that his opponent Democratic nominee Mary Peltola's campaign recruited another candidate named Dan Sullivan to run for Senate on ‘One Nation.’ ‘It’s disgusting’: Sen Dan…
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All senate ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
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Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
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Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
11.57%median
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Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
46.75%median
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Montana Senate election: Seth Bodnar vote percent
36.06%median
10%50%
Median 36.06%Middle half 35.48% – 36.63%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions