Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
59%At least 30%
16%34%
Install
Texas Senate election: Ken Paxton vote percent
The odds
43.07%median
40%58%
Median 43.07%Middle half 42.52% – 43.61%
How the odds have moved
Median: 48.59% on Oct 20, 43.07% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 42% | 99% | 1¢ | $1.01 | 3.1K | ||
| At least 44% | 7% | 29¢ | $3.45 | 345 | ||
| At least 46% | 3% | 13¢ | $7.69 | 1.6K | ||
| At least 47% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.7K | ||
| At least 48% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.7K | ||
| At least 49% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 3.9K | ||
| At least 50% | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 10.2K | ||
| At least 52% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 8.6K | ||
| At least 54% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 6.5K | ||
| At least 56% | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 8.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas Senate, Ken Paxton
Search ›- Trump's gamble on Ken Paxton backfires as Democrat pulls off historic Texas Senate upsetDemocrats just made history in Texas. President Donald Trump’s gamble on Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a strong ally of the president’s, backfired on him after Texas state Rep. James Talarico pulled off an upset to score Democrats…
- James Talarico upsets Ken Paxton in Texas Senate raceNov 03, 2026 at 11:01 PM EST Nov 03, 2026 at 11:13 PM EST James Talarico, a former teacher who built a national profile as an outspoken progressive Christian, is headed to the U.S. Senate after defeating Republican Attorney General Ken…
- Democrat James Talarico turns Texas Senate seat blue, defeating Ken PaxtonBREAKING: James Talarico defeats Republican Ken Paxton in Texas; Democrat Amy Acton defeats Vivek Ramaswamy to win Ohio’s race for governor Democrat James Talarico has pulled off an election win that was unthinkable for years, flipping a…
- James Talarico on flipping Texas Senate seat in race against Ken PaxtonCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. James Talarico on…
- Ken Paxton issues dire warning as Texas Senate race goes down to the wireFox News Ken Paxton issues dire warning as Texas Senate race goes down to the wire The Texas attorney general and U.S. Senate candidate urged Republicans to vote, warning that Democrats could threaten the state’s conservative stronghold in…
- Texas Senate race poll shows James Talarico leading Ken PaxtonDemocrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by seven points in a New York Times/Siena poll for the Texas Senate race. Mike Tobin reports on the historic spending in this election, which has seen over half a billion dollars poured…
- Ken Paxton warns Texas Senate race comes down to voter turnoutTexas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton tells 'The Big Weekend Show' co-hosts how important it is for every Republican in Texas to go out and vote this election. Ken Paxton warns Texas Senate race comes down to voter turnout Texas…
- Ken Paxton awaits election results after contentious campaignCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Ken Paxton awaits election…
- Talarico says Ken Paxton hasn’t called him | CNN PoliticsTexas Senator-elect James Talarico says he hasn't heard directly from his opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, after flipping the Texas seat. Texans took to the streets to celebrate the state flipping from red to blue for the first time in…
- James Talarico says Ken Paxton has not called him yetCNN James Talarico says Ken Paxton has not called him yet Texas Senator-elect James Talarico says he hasn't heard directly from his opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, after flipping the Texas seat.
- Ken Paxton concedes Texas Senate race to James TalaricoClick2Houston Ken Paxton concedes Texas Senate race to James Talarico Republican Ken Paxton conceded the Texas U.S. Senate race to Democrat James Talarico. The concession followed a high-profile campaign to fill the seat of outgoing Sen…
- Texas Goes Blue: James Talarico Triumphs Over Ken PaxtonThe myth of a blue Texas is now a reality. Democrat James Talarico has defeated Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in one of the most hotly contested Senate races of the year. Shortly after Talarico was projected to win, Democrat…
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All senate ›Alaska Governor election: Dave Bronson vote percent (1st Round)
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Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
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Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
11.57%median
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Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
46.75%median
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Montana Senate election: Seth Bodnar vote percent
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions