Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in December (Dec 7, 2026 meeting)
93%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate93%▲ 1
- Hike 1-25bps3%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%▼ 1
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%
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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
The odds
95%No change
- No change95%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase4%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
No change: 70% on Oct 20, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 9 PM ETNo change: 66% → 56%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 95% | ▼ 1 | 94¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | $19.1K |
| 25 bps increase | 4% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | $9.5K |
| 25 bps decrease | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $2.3K | |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $2K | ||
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $2.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Kalshi
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in December (Dec 7, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 93%Polymarket 95%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Reserve Bank of Australia Decision
Search ›- Australian Dollar futures hit 2.5-week low after RBA rate hike.Australian Dollar futures fell for a second consecutive session, dropping 0.5% to 0.6960 and hitting a two-and-a-half-week low. The selling pressure follows the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis…
- Westpac Announces Interest Rate Changes 4 NovemberFollowing the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to increase the cash rate, Westpac has announced interest rate changes for home loan and deposit customers. For home loan customers: Westpac Chief Executive, Consumer, Carolyn McCann said…
- ANZ Changes Variable Home Loan and Deposit RatesANZ today announced it will increase interest rates for variable home loan and some deposit customers following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to increase the official cash rate yesterday. Variable interest rates across ANZ's…
- Aussie Under Pressure from RBA, China, and Falling Iron Ore. Forecast as of 03.11.2026The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise the cash rate came as no surprise. However, the split vote and the removal of hawkish language from the accompanying statement caught markets off guard, triggering a sharp decline in the…
- Minns warns expected RBA rate rise will see ‘shops close that don’t reopen’ as pressure mounts on PMFrustration grows over the economy with one Labor MP saying voter anger is already high ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia decision Get our daily political email, free app or daily news podcast The NSW premier, Chris Minns, has warned an…
- Asian currencies mixed as yuan holds near four-year high, dollar steadiesInvesting.com -- Asian currencies traded mixed on Monday, with the Chinese yuan holding near its strongest level in more than four years, while the U.S. dollar remained broadly steady as investors prepared for the U.S. midterm elections…
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Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
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- 25 bps decrease<1%
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Bank of Brazil decision in December?
89%No Change
- No Change89%▲ 1
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Bank of Canada Decision in December?
68%No Change
- No Change68%▼ 6
- 25 bps increase30%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 11
- No change21%▼ 13
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 1
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
- No change82%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions