Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
95%No change
- No change95%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase4%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in December (Dec 7, 2026 meeting)
The odds
93%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate93%▲ 1
- Hike 1-25bps3%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%▼ 1
- Hike more than 25bps1%
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 89% on Nov 3, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 93% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 100 |
| Hike 1-25bps | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 274 | |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 22.00 | |
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 10.00 |
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 10.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in December (Dec 7, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 93%Polymarket 95%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Reserve Bank of Australia
Search ›- Reserve Bank of Australia: Balanced stance after November hike – Standard CharteredStandard Chartered’s Nicholas Chia reviews the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November decision to lift the cash rate to 4.85% in a 6-3 split vote. Standard Charteredâs Nicholas Chia reviews the Reserve Bank of Australiaâs (RBA)…
- Paul Bloxham: HSBC chief economist on the Reserve Bank of Australia lifting the OCR up to 4.85 percent - Heather du Plessis-Allan DriveiHeart Over in Australia, the Reserve Bank has moved to increase the OCR for the fifth time to 4.85 percent. The central bank's board members voted six-to-three in favour of the increase amid growing concerns about inflation. HSBC chief…
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 25bp rate hike, as widely expectedThe Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday, its fifth increase of 2026 and the highest level since 2008. The decision was far from unanimous, though: six board members voted to hike and three…
- Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks during a press conference after Australia's central bank lifted its cash rate to 4.85% in SydneyThe Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks during a press conference after Australia's central bank lifted its cash rate to 4.85% in Sydney, Australia, November 3, 2026…
- Reserve Bank of Australia Lifts Cash Rate Target by 25 Basis Points to 4.85%... Published on 11/02/2026 at 10:32 pm EST The rupee resists oil, supported by Jio Platforms IPO flows October 22, 2026 at 05:08 am EDT
- Reserve Bank of Australia tipped to deliver rate rise, meaning long wait for mortgage reliefThe Reserve Bank is tipped to lift the cash rate to an 18-year high and if some economists are to be believed, mortgage-holders face a lengthy wait for relief. Mortgage holders about to be hit with another rate rise could be waiting until…
- BoE raises rates as Australia's RBA may pause hikesSeveral major central banks have raised interest rates recently, each at different stages of their tightening cycles. Policymakers are cautious of inflation, with interest rate outlooks influenced by Middle East conflict developments and…
- The Issue: Property economist reveals when Australians should buy to time it with the bottom of the marketAustralian home buyers have deserted the property market as five interest rate hikes, high inflation and the Albanese Government’s tax changes create low confidence and the sharpest price downturn in decades. There is one question on the…
- ASB tips higher mortgage rates despite Reserve Bank’s surprise holdSix-month fixed is cheapest, but economists expect every term to rise ASB economists expect mortgage rates to keep climbing across every term, even after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly left the official cash rate (OCR)…
- The 5 ASX dividend shares I'd buy with yields above 6%These ASX dividend shares have very attractive yields. I'd buy them today! "Live within your income and save so that you can invest." — Charlie Munger I believe ASX dividend shares with high, sustainable dividend yields are incredibly…
- Australia's central bank warns public confidence in inflation fight is slippingPedestrians walk past the Reserve Bank of Australia building in central Sydney, Australia, February 10, 2017. REUTERS/Steven Saphore SYDNEY, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Public confidence in the Reserve Bank of Australia's ability to control…
- Macquarie keeps gaining ground as brokers drive the switchMacquarie Bank’s home loan portfolio has reached $198.2 billion, up 9% since 31 March 2026, lifting its share of the Australian mortgage market to 7.6%. The figures were released alongside Macquarie Group’s result for the half year to 30…
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Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
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Bank of Brazil decision in December?
89%No Change
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Bank of Canada Decision in December?
70%No Change
- No Change70%▼ 4
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- 25 bps decrease<1%
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- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 10
- No change21%▼ 13
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 2
2 more
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Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
- No change82%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
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- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions