Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Elon Musk
13%
▲ 3
13¢
13¢
$7.46
$70.3K
Keonne Rodriguez
8%
▲ 1
8¢
10¢
$10.00
$21.4K
Steve Bannon
6%
▼ 1
5¢
9¢
$11.76
$14.5K
Daniel Penny
4%
▼ 1
4¢
6¢
$16.39
$2.1K
Himself
4%
4¢
4¢
$23.81
$40.7K
Roger Stone
4%
4¢
5¢
$18.52
$11.8K
Donald Brodie
4%
▼ 3
3¢
6¢
$16.67
$21.1K
Ryan Salame
4%
3¢
6¢
$16.67
$35.9K
Matt Gaetz
4%
3¢
5¢
$20.00
$8.5K
Stefan Brodie
4%
3¢
5¢
$21.74
$5K
Julian Assange
3%
3¢
4¢
$24.39
$6.1K
Young Thug
3%
3¢
4¢
$23.81
$5.5K
Edward Snowden
3%
3¢
4¢
$25.64
$3.3K
Eric Adams
3%
▼ 1
2¢
5¢
$20.41
$1.9K
Elizabeth Holmes
3%
2¢
5¢
$21.74
$9.4K
Antoine Massey
3%
2¢
5¢
$21.28
$2.5K
Nicolas Maduro
3%
3¢
4¢
$25.64
$11.4K
Diddy
3%
2¢
4¢
$23.81
$36.3K
Ghislaine Maxwell
3%
3¢
3¢
$35.71
$33.3K
Roger Ver
3%
2¢
4¢
$22.73
$6K
Joe Exotic
3%
2¢
4¢
$23.26
$8K
Derek Chauvin
3%
2¢
4¢
$28.57
$30.2K
Bob Menendez
2%
2¢
4¢
$28.57
$3.8K
Sam Bankman-Fried
2%
2¢
3¢
$33.33
$163K
Martin Shkreli
2%
1¢
4¢
$27.03
$40.6K
Hunter Biden
2%
1¢
4¢
$27.78
$5.7K
Andrew Tate
2%
2¢
2¢
$50.00
$2.1K
Do Kwon
1%
1¢
2¢
$58.82
$26.5K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Protest outside Elon Musk's Austin homeCBS News · 28 h agoDozens of people gathered outside a compound belonging to billionaire Elon Musk in Austin Saturday. They say they wanted to send a message about money in politics following last week's decisive election victories by Democrats. Protest…
Elon Musk in ‘Hate on the Spectrum’The Verge · 34 h agoSNL gave Elon the “epic vulgar roast” he earned so spectacularly by throwing half a billion dollars at losing candidates during the midterms. Don’t feel too bad for him, though — he’s still got another $850 billion to dry his tears with…
Michael Lewis on the ‘blockers’ who stood up to Elon Musk’s Doge - videothe Guardian · 19 h agoWhat happens when Elon Musk and a bunch of tech bros try to rip up the US government? Journalist Michael Lewis – the acclaimed author of Moneyball and of The Big Short – talks to Nosheen Iqbal about his new book Blockers, which tells the…
Elon Musk’s Austin home targeted by well-funded leftist groups aboard party busesFox News · 30 h agoFox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’ panel discuss Hillary Clinton saying she wants to force Elon Musk to testify to Congress if President Donald Trump pardons him. Three far-left nonprofits with combined annual revenues of $56.1…
John Oliver Dunks on Midterms Losers Elon Musk and Haley StevensVariety · 24 h agoAfter issuing an urgent warning prior to the midterms about the GOP’s increasingly troubling ties to neo-Nazis (with a little dig at Elizabeth Holmes and Billy Evans, of “You Can See Everything” infamy, thrown in for good measure), John…
'SNL' Makes Grok Roast Elon Musk On 'Weekend Update'Deadline · 36 h agoElon Musk has returned to Saturday Night Live, through Jeremy Culhane‘s hilarious impression, to give a postmortem of the midterm elections. As “Weekend Update” co-anchor Colin Jost noted, Musk has been in the news after he wasted half a…
‘SNL’ Weekend Update Brutally Roasts Elon Musk Over ‘Epic’ Midterms DefeatVariety · 47 h agoAn unhinged “Elon Musk” hit the “Saturday Night Live” Weekend Update desk this week to address the outcome of this week’s midterm elections — and Musk, as played by “SNL” featured player Jeremy Culhane, didn’t quite know how to address it…
SNL has a new impression of Elon Musk, ‘the worst thing South Africa has ever done’TechCrunch · 35 h agoSaturday Night Live cast member Jeremy Culhane unveiled his impression of Elon Musk last night, depicting the SpaceX and Tesla CEO as an awkward loser who fumbles his attempt to befriend the hosts of Weekend Update. This isn’t the first…
Democrats weigh probes of Trump family, DOGE and Elon Musk, key lawmaker saysThe Washington Post · 32 h agoPresident Donald Trump’s family members and business allies such as Elon Musk are likely to face scrutiny when Democrats take power in Congress in January, according to Rep. Robert Garcia (California), the top Democrat on the House…
Tesla Cybertruck: all the news about Elon Musk’s futuristic pickup truckThe Verge · 3 days agoHere’s everything you need to know about Tesla’s first pickup truck, which Elon Musk has called “heart-stopping” and his “personal favorite” of Tesla’s vehicles. Pickups have become more popular lately — their share of the US light vehicle…
Talarico reaches out to Elon Musk — but he's no born-again MAGAWashington Examiner · 3 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions