Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
70%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate70%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps30%▲ 4
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
Install
Bank of Canada Decision (Dec 9, 2026)
The odds
47%Hold
- Hold47%
- Hike 25 bp39%
- Cut 25 bp12%
- Cut 50+ bp2%
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
How the odds have moved
Hold: 49% on Oct 20, 47% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on ForecastEx. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 31, 11 PM ETHold: 40% → 49%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | 47% | $2.13 | 59.00 | |||
| Hike 25 bp | 39% | $2.56 | 200 | |||
| Cut 25 bp | 12% | $8.22 | 40.00 | |||
| Cut 50+ bp | 2% | $57.47 | 10.00 | |||
| Hike 50+ bp | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Kalshi
- Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?HoldKalshi 70%ForecastEx 47%23 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of Canada Decision in December?HoldPolymarket 69%ForecastEx 47%22 pts apart
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
69%No Change
- No Change69%▼ 5
- 25 bps increase30%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Bank of Canada Decision
Search ›- GIC yields on the rise as Bank of Canada battles inflation: Dale JacksonIf you enjoy a good night’s sleep, there’s reason to sleep a little deeper. Yields on fixed income products such as guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) are inching up - reaching as much as 4.5 per cent. Pressure for borrowers to pay…
- TSX futures dip as oil rises before Bank of Canada decisionPublished on 10/28/2026 at 06:17 am EDT - Modified on 10/28/2026 at 06:36 am EDT Oct 28 (Reuters) - Futures tracking Canada's blue-chip stocks edged lower on Wednesday as higher oil prices rekindled inflation concerns ahead of the Bank of…
- Interest rates are rising – here’s how savings accounts and GICs are keeping upGood morning. For the first time in three years, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, increasing it by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.5 per cent. And it might not stop there, with the central bank…
- USD/CAD Forecast Today: Canadian Dollar Hits Six-Week High as GDP Data LoomsThe Canadian dollar extended its gains on Friday after reaching a six-week high in the previous session, as a Bank of Canada rate increase narrowed the yield gap with the United States. Investors now await Canadian GDP figures for evidence…
- Will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Why the Oct. 28 interest rate decision is shaping up to be the ‘most dramatic’ in agesThe Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision Oct. 28 as inflation reaches 3.1 per cent and analysts differ on whether rates could rise. The Bank of Canada will be announcing its latest interest rate on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Financial…
Related markets
All central banks ›Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
>99%chance▲ 53
Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
90%No Change
- No Change90%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease7%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
2 more
- 25 bps increase1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 11
- No change21%▼ 13
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 2
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
- No change82%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
77%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps77%▲ 6
- Maintain current rate22%▼ 4
- Cut 25bps1%
2 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions