Bank of Canada Decision (Dec 9, 2026)
47%Hold
- Hold47%
- Hike 25 bp39%
- Cut 25 bp12%
- Cut 50+ bp2%
1 more
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
Install
Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
The odds
70%Maintains rate
- Maintains rate70%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps30%▲ 4
- Cut >25bps<1%
- Cut 25bps<1%
- Hike >25bps<1%
How the odds have moved
Maintains rate: 55% on Oct 10, 70% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 5, 12 AM ETMaintains rate: 60% → 67%
- Oct 29, 12 AM ETMaintains rate: 54% → 63%
- Oct 20, 12 AM ETMaintains rate: 64% → 41%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintains rate | 70% | ▼ 2 | 70¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 60.5K |
| Hike 25bps | 30% | ▲ 4 | 29¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 40.9K |
| Cut >25bps | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 2.7K | ||
| Cut 25bps | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 2.0K | ||
| Hike >25bps | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 2.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?HoldKalshi 70%ForecastEx 47%23 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?Hike 25 bpKalshi 29%Polymarket 30%1 pts apart
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
69%No Change
- No Change69%▼ 5
- 25 bps increase30%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Bank of Canada
Search ›- Royal Bank Of Canada Has Lowered Expectations for Trisura Group (TSE:TSU) Stock PricePosted by Mitch Edgeman on Nov 9th, 2026 Trisura Group (TSE:TSU – Get Free Report) had its price objective cut by analysts at Royal Bank Of Canada from C$54.00 to C$42.00 in a report issued on Monday, BayStreet reports. The firm currently…
- Emera (TSE:EMA) Given New C$82.00 Price Target at Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Danessa Lincoln on Nov 9th, 2026 Emera (TSE:EMA – Get Free Report) had its price objective lowered by Royal Bank Of Canada from C$84.00 to C$82.00 in a research report issued on Monday, BayStreet reports. The brokerage presently…
- Installed Building Products (NYSE:IBP) Stock Gets Price Target Reduction from Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Defense World Staff on Nov 9th, 2026 Installed Building Products (NYSE:IBP – Free Report) had its target price reduced by Royal Bank Of Canada from $208.00 to $194.00 in a research report report published on Friday,Benzinga…
- JFrog (NASDAQ:FROG) Given New $121.00 Price Target at Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Danessa Lincoln on Nov 7th, 2026 JFrog (NASDAQ:FROG – Free Report) had its target price lifted by Royal Bank Of Canada from $118.00 to $121.00 in a research note published on Friday morning,Benzinga reports. Royal Bank Of Canada…
- NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) Price Target Cut to $5.00 by Analysts at Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Mitch Edgeman on Nov 7th, 2026 NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR – Free Report) had its target price decreased by Royal Bank Of Canada from $7.00 to $5.00 in a report issued on Friday morning,Benzinga reports. Royal Bank Of Canada…
- Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH) Stock Price Target Raised at Royal Bank Of CanadaPosted by Mitch Edgeman on Nov 7th, 2026 Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH – Free Report) had its price target hoisted by Royal Bank Of Canada from $276.00 to $295.00 in a report issued on Friday morning,Benzinga reports. They currently have an…
- Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) Stock Price Expected to Rise, Royal Bank Of Canada Analyst SaysPosted by Sarita Garza on Nov 7th, 2026 Read Our Latest Stock Report on Emerson Electric Here are the key news stories impacting Emerson Electric this week: Emerson Electric Co is a global technology and engineering company focused on…
- Brookfield Business Partners (TSE:BBU) Rating Lowered to Hold at Royal Bank Of CanadaBrookfield Business Partners (TSE:BBU – Get Free Report) was downgraded by equities research analysts at Royal Bank Of Canada from a “moderate buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note issued to investors on Friday, Zacks reports…
- Zimmer Biomet (NYSE:ZBH) Stock Price Expected to Rise, Royal Bank Of Canada Analyst SaysPosted by Sarita Garza on Nov 7th, 2026 Zimmer Biomet (NYSE:ZBH – Get Free Report) had its target price lifted by Royal Bank Of Canada from $110.00 to $125.00 in a report issued on Thursday, Benzinga reports. The brokerage currently has an…
- National Bank of Canada to acquire education savings business(NTIOF:OTCMKTS) Seeking Alpha National Bank of Canada (NTIOF) agreed to acquire Embark Student Corp., a Canadian digital education savings and planning company, adding to its businesses that support family financial planning, the company…
- Teleflex (NYSE:TFX) Stock Gets Price Target Bump from Royal Bank Of CanadaMarketBeat Teleflex (NYSE:TFX) Stock Gets Price Target Bump from Royal Bank Of Canada - Royal Bank of Canada raised Teleflex’s price target to $175 from $155 and maintained an Outperform rating, implying about 14.8% upside from the prior…
- NIKE (NYSE:NKE) Stock Gets Price Target Cut from Royal Bank Of CanadaNIKE (NYSE:NKE - Get Free Report) had its price objective decreased by investment analysts at Royal Bank Of Canada from $40.00 to $39.00 in a research note issued on Friday, Benzinga reports. The brokerage presently has a "sector perform"…
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77%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps77%▲ 6
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2 more
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- Cut more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions