ECB Interest Rates in Dec 2026
83%Hike <=25bps
- Hike <=25bps83%
- 0bps (Unchanged)14%
- Hike >25bps3%
- Cut >25bps2%
1 more
- Cut <=25bps2%
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ECB Decision (Dec 17, 2026)
The odds
<1%Hike 50+ bp
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
- Hike 25 bp<1%
- Hold<1%
- Cut 25 bp<1%
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
How the odds have moved
Hike 50+ bp: <1% on Oct 20, <1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on ForecastEx. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 50+ bp | <1% | |||||
| Hike 25 bp | <1% | |||||
| Hold | <1% | |||||
| Cut 25 bp | <1% | |||||
| Cut 50+ bp | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- ECB Decision (Dec 17, 2026)Hike <=25bpsForecastEx <1%Crypto.com 83%83 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)Hike 50+ bpKalshi 85%ForecastEx <1%85 pts apart
European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
85%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps85%▲ 2
- Maintain current rate16%▲ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: ECB Decision
Search ›- Euro dips as weak Eurozone data, BoJ tightening bets bolster Japanese YenEUR/JPY trades lower on Friday, losing 0.13% on the day to hover around 176.80 at the time of writing. The pair faces pressure from mixed economic data in the Eurozone, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from expectations of further…
- ECB's Lagarde says data will tell if December rate hike neededMILAN, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is looking at indicators to see if an interest rate hike will be warranted next month, after it held rates steady in October, the bank's outgoing President Christine Lagarde said on…
- Christine Lagarde's departure eclipses ECB's rate holdWhile the ECB's decision to leave interest rates unchanged was widely expected, it is above all the announcement of Christine Lagarde's upcoming departure that is attracting attention today and prompting reactions from economists at…
- Milan stocks edge higher after ECB decision, but weak Wall Street opening weighsPublished on 10/29/2026 at 11:21 am EDT 15.25 - Milan stocks strengthened slightly in the afternoon after the ECB kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. The real news came late in the morning, with the announcement of central bank…
- EUR/USD Forecast Today: Euro’s Rebound Stalls at 1.1200 After ECB DecisionThe euro struggled to hold above $1.1200 on Friday as investors weighed stronger-than-expected eurozone growth against the European Central Bank’s warning that expensive energy threatens both inflation and economic activity. EUR/USD traded…
- ECB Picks Digital Euro Network Providers as Pilot Infrastructure Takes ShapeTL;DR: The ECB has selected two provider groups for digital euro connectivity. The contracts support pilot preparation and possible future issuance, without deciding whether the currency will launch. The European Central Bank has selected…
- Bitcoin's Volatility Calendar: What Dates Matter, and What Are MythsAlso, decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) had a mild impact in the first 30 minutes, but the effect was not statistically significant. Bank of Japan (BOJ) decisions showed no measurable impact, although the BOJ has no fixed…
- European markets see modest gains as ECB decision loomsEuropean markets were little changed as investors eyed AI stocks, earnings, and Fed, ECB, BOJ rate decisions. In other parts of Europe, Sweden’s household confidence indicator fell to 94.3 in October. Retail sales in Sweden increased by…
- Euro consolidates losses against British Pound awaiting ECB decisionThe Euro (EUR) posts minor losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, trading within Wednesday’s range, as investors await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, due later in the day. The EUR/GBP pair eases to…
- Milan Stock Exchange opens slightly lower, Campari slides, profit-taking hits StellantisPublished on 10/29/2026 at 04:58 am EDT 9:25 a.m. - Piazza Affari opened slightly lower amid largely subdued trading across the rest of Europe, weighed down by weakness in bank stocks, in line with the European sector index. Domestic and…
- Euro markets slip as tech selloff weighs on sentimentEuropean markets edge higher as investors await the ECB decision, inflation signals, and key earnings. London (UKX) +0.32%. The UK Nationwide House Price Index rose 0.5% Y/Y in October. France (CAC:IND) -0.01%. France's economy shrinks…
- European Central Bank: December hike still base case – UOBUOB economist Lee Sue Ann notes that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept key rates unchanged in October but delivered a hawkish message. UOB economist Lee Sue Ann notes that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept key rates unchanged in…
Related markets
All central banks ›Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
>99%chance▲ 53
Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
90%No Change
- No Change90%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease7%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%
2 more
- 25 bps increase1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
69%No Change
- No Change69%▼ 5
- 25 bps increase30%▲ 5
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 11
- No change21%▼ 13
- 50+ bps increase1%▼ 2
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Bank of Russia decision in December?
82%No change
- No change82%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase3%▼ 1
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions