2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 For Nov 7, 2028 · $3K traded · $1.9K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

-35.1median
-538538
Median -35.1Middle half -114.4 – 55.6

How the odds have moved

Median: -23.9 on Oct 20, -35.1 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Democratic by 211 or more 7% ▲ 1 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 7.4K
Democratic by 131 to 210 13% 14¢ 15¢ $6.67 6.6K
Democratic by 91 to 130 12% 12¢ 13¢ $7.69 1.9K
Democratic by 61 to 90 10% 10¢ 11¢ $9.09 1.2K
Democratic by 31 to 60 10% 10¢ 11¢ $9.09 691
Democratic by 11 to 30 7% 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 2.1K
Democratic by 1 to 10 4% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.5K
Republican by 1 to 10 2% 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 3.2K
Republican by 11 to 30 5% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 1.1K
Republican by 31 to 60 6% 6¢ 7¢ $14.29 483
Republican by 61 to 90 8% 8¢ 9¢ $11.11 2.4K
Republican by 91 to 130 8% 8¢ 9¢ $11.11 2.1K
Republican by 131 to 210 3% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.1K
Republican by 211 or more 5% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Electoral College

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Elections › President 2028

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27%Jon Ossoff
  • Jon Ossoff27%▲ 2
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
  • Gavin Newsom9%▲ 1
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  • Pete Buttigieg6%
  • Kamala Harris5%
  • Josh Shapiro5%
  • Andy Beshear4%
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  • Ro Khanna2%▼ 1
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  • Abdul El-Sayed1%▼ 1
  • Rahm Emanuel1%
  • Chelsea Clinton1%▲ 1
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer1%
  • Cory Booker1%
  • Roy Cooper1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Jon Stewart<1%
  • Hillary Clinton<1%
  • Bernie Sanders<1%
  • Chris Murphy<1%
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  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Mitch Landrieu<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • MrBeast<1%
  • Oprah Winfrey<1%
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  • Liz Cheney<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
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  • Andrew Yang<1%
  • Beto O’Rourke<1%
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Elections › President 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%Jon Ossoff
  • Jon Ossoff19%▲ 2
  • JD Vance18%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%
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  • Marco Rubio9%
  • Gavin Newsom8%
  • Ron DeSantis6%▼ 1
  • Kamala Harris3%▼ 1
  • Pete Buttigieg3%
  • Josh Shapiro3%
  • Andy Beshear2%
  • Thomas Massie2%
  • Tucker Carlson2%
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  • Donald Trump1%
  • Raphael Warnock1%
  • Wes Moore1%
  • James Talarico1%
  • Mark Kelly1%
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  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
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  • LeBron James<1%
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Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

33%J.D. Vance
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  • Marco Rubio20%▼ 1
  • Ron DeSantis15%
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  • John N. Kennedy<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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