AP calls the House by...?

Polymarket Elections › President 2028 Closes Jan 3, 2027 · $29.2K today · $72.6K traded · $2.7K at stake · prices read 6 days ago

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The odds

>99%November 4, 11:59 PM

November 4, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 22
November 5, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 18
November 6, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 16
November 15, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 6
November 30, 11:59 PM>99%▲ 2
November 3, 11:59 PM<1%▼ 40

How the odds have moved

November 4, 11:59 PM: 87% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Traded
November 4, 11:59 PM	>99%	▲ 22	100¢	100¢	$9.5K
November 5, 11:59 PM	>99%	▲ 18	100¢	100¢	$16.1K
November 6, 11:59 PM	>99%	▲ 16	100¢	100¢	$19.1K
November 15, 11:59 PM	>99%	▲ 6	100¢	100¢	$10.5K
November 30, 11:59 PM	>99%	▲ 2	100¢	100¢	$8K
November 3, 11:59 PM	<1%	▼ 40		0¢	$9.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: House

Search ›

House Democrats debate their agendasemafor.com · 5 days agoHakeem Jeffries will have the largest House majority in decades next year, and he’s gearing up to use it. In comments to reporters Wednesday afternoon, Jeffries, set to be the country’s first Black speaker, said his caucus “made a promise…
Democrats’ House majority is trending toward historicCNN · 4 days agoThe 2026 midterm elections have clearly been very good for Democrats across the board. But their House majority is trending toward historic numbers. CNN is projecting that Democrats have won more than 250 House seats, with a net gain of…
Exclusive / Democrats weigh future of House China panelsemafor.com · 4 days agoHouse Democrats are debating the future of the chamber’s select panel on US-China competition. One option for overhauling the committee, according to people familiar with the situation, is broadening its focus beyond China to explore…
Idaho U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Idaho U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
Michigan House elects new leadership as Democrats reclaim majorityCBS News · 4 days agoNovember 5, 2026 / 10:08 PM EST / CBS Detroit The Michigan House announced its new leadership on Thursday as the Democratic Party reclaimed the majority in the 2026 midterm election. Rep. Ranjeev Puri (D-Canton) was named the House Speaker…
Melania Trump welcomes Russian, Ukrainian officials to the White HouseCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Melania Trump welcomes Russian, Ukrainian officials to the White House More details released about Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa’s transition team Bomb threats disrupt more than 20 flights across Europe Fort Worth's Colonial…
Houchin challenges McClain for House GOP conference chairThe Hill · 5 days agoby Sudiksha Kochi 11/05/26 11:36 AM ET Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.) is challenging House GOP conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) for the role, which will be central as Republicans work to sharpen their messaging in the minority next year…
Withdrawn candidate wins Texas House race in Tarrant CountyCBS News · 4 days agoA disputed Texas House District 93 race in northern Tarrant County is raising questions after a candidate withdrew in late September amid concerns about her eligibility to serve, leaving uncertainty about what happens next. Withdrawn…
Democrats flip 4 more seats in the House, CNN projectsCNN · 4 days agoThe party is approaching 250 seats in the House, while two Senate races — in Mississippi and Alaska — have yet to be called. • What we’re tracking: Democrats flipped four additional seats in the House, CNN projects and could win their…
Knives Are Out in the White HouseWIRED · 5 days agoPresident Donald Trump’s aides were reeling from the scale of Republican losses on Tuesday night, but they almost immediately began figuring out who to blame. The ultimate responsibility, officials acknowledged only in private, lay with…
Democrats on verge of biggest House gain since Watergate wipeoutCNN · 4 days agoCNN Democrats on verge of biggest House gain since Watergate wipeout The blue wave continues with Democrats now just two seats away from their biggest win in the House since the Watergate wipeout of Republicans in 1974.
Here's the caucus breakdown of Democrats' new House majorityWashington Examiner · 4 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJan 3, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$72.6K

Today$29.2K

This week$41.6K

At stake$2.7K

In the news517 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Associated Press has, by the specified date and time (ET), called control of the United States House of Representatives for the Congress that will convene following the midterm elections. Otherwise it will resolve to “No”. Control of the House of Representatives will be considered to have been called when the Associated Press has either 1) issued a call that House control has been determined, or 2) issued race calls declaring winners in at least 218 districts for candidates of the same party, with all such calls standing at the same time for 1 hour without retraction. Independents will not be considered members of a party for purposes of this count.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions