Bank of England decision in December?
58%No change
- No change58%
- 25 bps increase42%▲ 4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Bank of England rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
The odds
57%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate57%▲ 1
- Hike 1-25bps40%▲ 4
- Hike more than 25bps1%▼ 1
- Cut more than 25bps1%▲ 1
- Cut 1-25bps1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 51% on Oct 20, 57% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 10 PM ETMaintain current rate: 67% → 73%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 30, 11 PM ETMaintain current rate: 57% → 64%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 57% | ▲ 1 | 57¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 11.5K |
| Hike 1-25bps | 40% | ▲ 4 | 40¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 14.8K |
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.4K |
| Cut more than 25bps | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.1K | |
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of England rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)Hike 25 bpKalshi 40%Polymarket 42%1 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Bank of England
Search ›- BBC expert £1,000 warning to savers after Bank of England decisionA warning has been issued for anyone with savings in bank or building society accounts after the Bank of England hiked interest rates last week. The Bank of England increased interest rates for the first time in more than three years as it…
- Bank of England hikes for the first time since the Iran war, lifting interest rate to 4%The Bank of England announced its first interest rate hike in over three years on Thursday, as it raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 4%. The widely anticipated move marked the bank's first hike since Aug. 2023, and made it the last…
- Bank of England rate rise piles more pressure on businessJust when businesses might have hoped that one of the biggest economic headaches of recent years was finally receding, along comes another reminder that the path back to something resembling normality was never going to be straightforward…
- Bank of England boss warns homeowners face THREE more rate hikes – but rules out repeat of 2022MILLIONS of homeowners face a fresh mortgage blow after a Bank of England boss warned that markets are still pricing in three more interest rate rises. Chief economist Huw Pill confirmed financial markets are now expecting a trio of…
- QCB Governor meets Bank of England GovernorGovernor of the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) Sheikh Bandar bin Mohammed bin Saoud Al Thani met yesterday during his visit to the United Kingdom, with Gove... Business / Qatar Business QCB Governor meets Bank of England Governor Governor of the…
- Bank of England raises interest rates to 4%, the first increase in more than three yearsThe Bank of England raises interest rates to 4%, the first increase in more than three years Governor Andrew Bailey says it shouldn't be seen as the first in an "inevitably long sequence of hikes" - but warns "neither does it seem likely…
- Bank of England raises interest rates to 4%, the first increase for more than three yearsDecision by MPC a week after the budget comes as Iran war continues to drive up energy costs The Bank of England has raised interest rates for the first time in three years and warned of another increase to come, to combat soaring…
- Bank of England expected to raise interest rates for first time in three years today – business liveLooking at the latest money market pricing, a UK interest rate rise today is seen as a 98% chance. The Bank of England will be reassured to see that the oil price has tumbled this week. Brent crude crashed through the $100 a barrel mark…
- Pound Sterling Fades Bank of England HikeThe pound gave back the gains it made on the Bank of England's rate hike as investors judged the Bank's hawkish message was already in the price, although the prospect of further hikes keeps its losses against the euro limited. "Despite…
- Banks Are Handing Riskier Loans to the Bank of England for CashBanks have been pledging riskier loans to the Bank of England in exchange for cash through the Indexed Long-Term Repo, a liquidity backstop that runs weekly and lets lenders borrow for six months. The facility accepts three grades of…
- Bank of England interest rate rise to 4 per cent expectedA rate hike appears to be a 'done deal' as inflation continues to climb, an Oxford expert warned. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 4 per cent from 3.75 per cent in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)…
- NFDA warns Bank of England interest rate hike will hit dealersPosted by: John Kirwan in Latest News Friday, 6 November 2026 0 The National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA) has raised concerns over the impact of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate increase. It said higher borrowing costs…
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- Hike 25bps77%▲ 6
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions